- News of Meta Platforms planning to sell excess artificial intelligence computing power has sparked market concerns about the sustainability of chip demand, leading to a sell-off in the Asia-Pacific semiconductor manufacturing sector. The Korean Composite Index and the Nikkei 225 Index recorded significant declines.
- The U.S. June non-farm employment report was released early due to the Independence Day holiday. Economists expect a median increase of 110,000 jobs, with temporary positions created by the World Cup potentially posing an upside risk to the data.
- The yen continues to hover near a 40-year low against the dollar. Japanese officials are abandoning the tradition of signaling intervention in advance, opting instead for more covert actions to squeeze short positions.
Concerns Over Excess Computing Power Hit Chip Sector Hard
Meta's plan to release some of its excess AI computing power has raised doubts about the marginal demand in the AI investment boom. As a result, the Asia-Pacific semiconductor industry faced significant pressure on Thursday. Shares of chip giants like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix plummeted, causing the Korean Composite Index to plunge nearly 7% intraday before closing down 3%. Meanwhile, Japan's Nikkei Index also recorded a 1.2% decline, highlighting the semiconductor supply chain's high sensitivity to changes in downstream demand.
U.S. Treasury Yields Rise Ahead of Non-Farm Employment Report
Market focus has shifted to the upcoming early release of the U.S. June non-farm employment data. Driven by strong employment expectations, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen by 9 basis points this week, despite Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh's previous public statement that inflation risks are declining. Economists currently estimate a median increase of 110,000 non-farm jobs, but the World Cup could create thousands of temporary jobs, resulting in a significant forecast range of 25,000 to 200,000.
Monetary Policy Pricing Faces Data Test
The current employment data performance will be a key variable in the Federal Reserve's policy direction for the year. The interest rate futures market currently prices an 80% probability of a Fed rate hike in September. Analysts point out that if non-farm employment data exceeds expectations, it will further strengthen market expectations for the Fed to tighten monetary policy this year. Conversely, if the data unexpectedly weakens, it may temporarily ease the pressure on the Fed to continue raising rates, keeping the unemployment rate at the expected level of 4.3%.
Bank of Japan Shifts to Calculative Intervention Strategy
In the foreign exchange market, the yen is currently hovering around 162.52 against the dollar, near a 40-year historical low. Although Japanese officials have frequently issued verbal warnings of intervention, no actual market action has been observed. Informed sources reveal that Japanese financial officials are changing their previous communication habit of signaling intervention intentions in advance, planning instead to take more targeted and calculative actions to maximize the cost of holding yen short positions and squeeze short positions.
