While the United States believes the causes that "possibly" led to the plane crash of Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group, remain shrouded in mystery, some Russian observers think the crash was not an accident but a meticulously planned act of delayed retaliation by the Kremlin.
However, if Vladimir Putin did order the downing of Prigozhin's plane as retribution for his commandeering a brief armed rebellion in June, questions still linger as to why Putin chose to act now and what exactly he aims to achieve.
With the Wagner Group, an influential and formidable paramilitary organization in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, facing an uncertain future after the death of its leader Prigozhin and most of its top brass in the plane crash.
This summer, Prigozhin betrayed Putin, leading his mercenaries towards Moscow. Although an agreement was reached to quell the mutiny, Prigozhin faced no form of sanctions or punishment.
Katrina Doxsee, Deputy Director of the Transnational Threats Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, states that Russia and Putin personally have a long history of eliminating political rivals and anyone who defies or openly opposes them. Putin's question was not how to punish Prigozhin, but when, especially after the brief mutiny incensed Putin.
U.S. President Biden also speculated that Putin orchestrated the incident behind the scenes. After the crash, Biden remarked that nothing in Russia happens without Putin's manipulation.
Despite Kremlin spokespeople denying any involvement in the crash and calling the accusations absolute lies, two U.S. officials told ABC News that preliminary intelligence indicates the plane was destroyed by a bomb on board.
After the crash, Putin has remained silent in his initial public appearances. Doxsee believes that although Putin intended to quell criticism and prevent any potential unrest, he opted for a "subtle" course between accepting responsibility and creating an overly ambiguous chain of causation.
Doxsee added that despite the anger and resentment within the Wagner Group, the paramilitary organization is likely unable to take any effective action under the current circumstances. The impact of Prigozhin's crash on the Wagner Group, the Russian military, and the southern regions of Russia may take months to manifest.
In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Wagner Group, serving as the vanguard of the Russian military, not only helped Russia secure many victories but also established its prestige in the southern regions of Russia. During the brief mutiny this summer, the southern region's military's turn-a-blind-eye approach indicates a preference for the Wagner Group.
Should any concrete evidence emerge proving Putin or the Russian government orchestrated Prigozhin's crash, it could not only escalate tensions between the Wagner Group and Russia but also further fray the relationship between Russia's elites and the southern regions.
