According to the latest survey data released by the New York Federal Reserve, U.S. consumers' view of household finances in November reached its most optimistic level since early 2020. After Trump's victory in the presidential election, consumer sentiment improved significantly. However, the survey also shows that expectations for short-term, medium-term, and long-term inflation have risen across the board, especially with the inflation expectation for the next year rising to 3%, up from 2.9% in October. Meanwhile, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2025 have decreased, which could also affect the Fed's future policy path.
According to market forecasts, the U.S. CPI data for November is expected to rebound, rising from 2.6% in October to 2.7%. The core CPI is expected to remain between 3.2% and 3.3%. If the CPI rebound occurs as expected, it could influence whether the Fed continues its tight policy or adjusts its rate cut path.
Meanwhile, the rebound of the British Pound against the U.S. Dollar is facing technical pressure. The GBP/USD pair encountered resistance near the 30-day moving average, showing strong selling pressure during the rebound. Although the daily candlestick chart currently indicates that GBP/USD is still in a rising oscillation channel, the upward pressure is considerable. The KD indicator lines remain above 50 but show signs of turning downward, indicating strong resistance above. The GBP/USD faces significant pressure around the 1.2830 level.
From a technical perspective, the initial upward resistance for GBP/USD is at 1.2850, with further resistance at 1.2950 and key resistance at 1.3050; the initial downward support is at 1.2650, with further support at 1.2550 and stronger support at 1.2500. Overall, GBP/USD is likely to maintain an oscillation upward trend, but upward space is limited, and there is still significant short-term uncertainty.
The rebound in U.S. CPI data may affect the Fed's rate cut path, while GBP/USD faces technical pressure and may maintain a volatile trend in the short term, with attention on the breakthrough of key technical levels.
