Tonight, everyone's attention will be on the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for March, which is considered crucial for predicting the Federal Reserve's outlook on interest rate cuts.
After reports for January and February showed rising inflation, the market generally expects tonight's CPI data to show a cooling trend in inflation. It is forecasted that the core CPI for March will be 3.7%, slightly down from February's 3.8% and also lower than the 3.9% in January and December. Additionally, the March core CPI is expected to have a month-over-month growth rate of 0.3%, which is slightly below February's 0.4%.
Moreover, both Wall Street and Federal Reserve officials are closely monitoring this situation. Macquarie strategist Thierry Wizman pointed out that, due to the uncertainty of labor market indicators, the importance of the CPI report is further highlighted. He believes that the uncertainty in US labor market indicators makes the Federal Reserve's policy outlook for the coming months more uncertain, thus elevating the significance of the CPI data.
Currently, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market widely believes there is a 60% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in June.
According to Meghan Swiber, a rate strategist at Bank of America, inflation measured by the CPI showed signs of cooling in March, which could increase the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates at the policy meeting in June. She stated that if the core CPI inflation rate drops to 0.2%, the market might lean more towards expecting a rate cut in June.
Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, also emphasized the significance of the data, noting that the March CPI data will directly influence their decision-making. If the data meets expectations, it will be seen as a welcome development.
Furthermore, the trading department at JPMorgan Chase noted that the March CPI report could significantly influence future stock market trends. They believe that the report could lead to one of the following scenarios:
Business as usual: Stock market trends remain unchanged, but a broader shift towards cyclical/value stocks may be observed.
Inflation overheats: Overheated inflation could trigger a significant drop in stock prices, but strong economic growth may limit the downside.
Inflation cools unexpectedly: This could lead to an accelerated rise in the stock market, with specific sectors like regional banks and renewable energy possibly outperforming.
