On December 2, COMEX gold prices exhibited volatility, initially declining and then rising, ultimately closing at $2,661.8 per ounce, a decrease of 0.72%. Simultaneously, the domestic Shanghai Gold Exchange (SHFE) night session opened higher but closed lower at 615.56 yuan per gram, with a marginal increase of only 0.04%. This movement reflects the market's response to US economic data and the ongoing impact of the dollar's movements on gold prices.
On Monday, the US ISM published November's manufacturing PMI data, with the index reaching 48.4, a new high since June. This figure not only exceeded the expected 47.6 but also marked an increase from October's 46.5, with a monthly rise of 1.9 percentage points, the largest monthly increase since March this year. This indicates a potential gradual recovery in US manufacturing, with improving business confidence. Notably, the new orders index entered expansion territory in November, signifying a rebound in US business activity, boosting market optimism and suggesting that the US economy is gradually emerging from its slump.
The better-than-expected ISM manufacturing PMI data temporarily supported the dollar's rise, adversely impacting the gold market. The dollar index rose after the data release, stifling gold's investment appeal. Additionally, global political turbulence added further pressure on the market. French Prime Minister Barnier, after forcibly passing the budget, faced opposition from the far-right National Rally and left-wing parties, putting the government at risk of a no-confidence vote. This situation led to the euro falling to a one-week low, further strengthening the dollar and exerting additional downward pressure on gold.
However, despite the dollar's rise suppressing gold, the gold market did not completely decline. The Middle East's complex situation remains a significant focus for the market, especially the ongoing tensions involving Iran, which have not shown significant relief. This offers some support for gold, and the market remains optimistic about gold's role in fulfilling safe-haven demand.
Moreover, market attention on the upcoming US employment data is intensifying. As a crucial reference for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, employment data could have far-reaching effects on the gold market. If US employment data performs strongly, it could exacerbate pressure on gold by further appreciating the dollar. Conversely, if the data falls short of expectations, gold prices may have an opportunity to rebound.
Overall, the current gold market remains in a state of consolidation, significantly influenced in the short term by dollar trends and US economic data. Investors need to closely monitor the upcoming US employment report, which will provide clearer direction for gold price trends in the coming weeks. Despite current pressures, given the global geopolitical uncertainties, gold prices are still likely to maintain support within a certain range, with safe-haven demand being a potential driving force in the market.
