- U.S. Treasury Secretary Besent stated that, apart from China, there are currently almost no other countries willing to purchase Iranian oil, as buyers are generally concerned about the potential reinstatement of U.S. sanctions.
- With insufficient external demand and the need to sell at a discount, Iran's export expansion is limited, which the U.S. sees as significant pressure to bring Iran back to the negotiating table.
- Following the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, international oil prices have fallen, and the U.S. government is now focusing on the retail sector, hoping that the drop in oil prices will be quickly passed on to consumers.
Sanction Expectations Compress Iran's Market
Besent pointed out that market concerns about the U.S. re-imposing sanctions make most potential buyers reluctant to purchase Iranian oil. Even if Iran maintains its exports, it mainly relies on existing channels, with overall weak bargaining power, forcing it to continue selling at a discount.
China Remains a Major Stable Buyer
According to U.S. officials, China remains the most consistent buyer of Iranian oil. Since this import relationship has persisted during the sanction period, Iran finds it difficult to quickly expand into more alternative markets in the short term, thus limiting its export recovery potential.
Negotiation Leverage Shifts to Export Pressure
The U.S. believes that if international buyers continue to wait and see, Iran will be more motivated to participate in a new round of negotiations in Doha. The pressure on energy revenues not only affects fiscal recovery but also weakens its time advantage and maneuvering space in subsequent negotiations.
Oil Price Decline Tests Retail Transmission
Besent also emphasized that the recent decline in international oil prices indicates a cooling of market concerns over geopolitical risks, but whether consumers truly benefit depends on whether gas station retail prices can be adjusted downward accordingly. The U.S. government stated it will continue to monitor pricing to prevent profits from being retained in the distribution chain.
