Italy has decided to set the cap for the new tax at 0.1% of the total assets of banks, aiming to levy taxes through higher loan profits. This surprise decision led to a sell-off in the markets on Tuesday, with investors rushing to sell stocks and other assets.
As a result of this decision, Italian bank stocks fell sharply at the close, with top bank UniCredit San Paolo (OTC:ISNPY) dropping 8.6%, and mid-sized BPER falling by 10.9%. Analysts pointed out that although other European countries like Spain and Hungary have already imposed windfall taxes on banks, Italy's decision still caught the market off guard, severely damaging investor confidence and leading to a chaotic situation in the stock market.
The conservative government led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni had considered the proposal to impose a bank tax, but it seemed to have been abandoned. This shift was unexpected, even surprising ministers who attended the cabinet meeting on Monday.
The Treasury said on Tuesday evening that the revenue from this tax would be limited to within 0.1% of the lenders' total assets, aiming to alleviate market concerns about possible changes in tax policy.
Citigroup analysts estimate that this tax policy will generate revenue equivalent to about 3% of the banks' tangible asset value in 2023, or about 0.5% of the risk-weighted assets for the year. The earnings from the tax will represent a relatively small proportion of the total risk-weighted assets across the banking system and might have a certain impact on the financial condition of banks, but not significantly so. According to sources and analysts in Rome, the expected revenue from this tax policy is still projected to be below 3 billion euros.
This tax policy has caused a stir across the European banking sector, targeting the rate-driven growth in banks' net interest income or the profits lenders make from the spread between loan and deposit rates.
As the European Central Bank raised official interest rates, banks had to increase the cost of loans while also delaying cash rewards to depositors. Banks need to respond with adjustments in interest rates and fund management to maintain profitability, avoiding more complicated and severe challenges in the banking sector.
