Bitcoin fell below $81,000 on October 8, touching roughly $80,800 intraday as more than $1 billion in liquidations accelerated the exit from leveraged positions. Markets broadly expect the Federal Reserve to leave rates unchanged at its October meeting, but hawkish policy signals, rising Treasury yields and weak spot buying suggest that a pause may not be enough to ease pressure on crypto assets.
Bitcoin was trading at about $80,389, down 3.42% over 24 hours and 5.20% over seven days. It remained up 2.33% over the past 30 days. The cryptocurrency had a market capitalization of roughly $1.62 trillion, while 24-hour trading volume reached $43.15 billion, up 13.64% from the previous day. Its circulating supply stood at approximately 20.1 million coins.
December Rate-Hike Bets Remain in Place
Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's September meeting, released on October 7, showed that most officials viewed another rate increase before year-end as a significant possibility, while stressing that future decisions would depend on incoming economic data. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on October 8 that futures-market pricing, as of October 7, implied an approximately 85% probability of at least one rate hike by December.
The same market pricing implied a probability close to 80% of at least two rate increases by March 2027, while the probability of three or more hikes was about 33%. These figures represent market-implied expectations and do not indicate that the Federal Reserve has made a decision. Waller said that if economic data develop as expected, further rate increases could still be warranted, and that the central bank could skip one meeting before acting later.
An October pause would therefore delay a possible policy move rather than necessarily change the broader rate path. On October 8, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 5.305%, while the two-year yield stood at 4.821%. Brent crude reached $104.87 a barrel. Elevated oil prices make it harder for inflationary pressure to fade quickly, while high Treasury yields continue to raise the cost of capital for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Spot Volume Is Too Thin to Absorb Selling
In an analysis dated October 7, on-chain data firm Glassnode said combined daily trading volume on spot exchanges and U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs was about $6.8 billion, below roughly 90% of the readings observed since January 2024. Over the same period, estimated new inflows from ETFs, stablecoins and corporate treasury purchases totaled about $4.9 billion. Realized market capitalization had increased by $12.8 billion over the previous 30 days, less than 40% of the related total.
The data indicate that the earlier price gains were driven to a large extent by repricing of existing capital rather than by a sustained expansion in new buying. When selling emerges, the market has relatively limited depth available to absorb orders, leaving prices more exposed to leveraged liquidations and shifts in liquidity.
The $81,000 Support Zone Gives Way
A day before Bitcoin broke below $81,000, Glassnode identified a concentration of long-position liquidations between $81,700 and $83,300. It also observed sizeable buy orders on Binance around $81,000 to $81,250. Prices subsequently moved through those areas, amplifying the liquidation-driven decline.
What is clear is that Bitcoin has fallen below the areas where positions were concentrated. More detailed intraday data would be needed to establish the precise sequence between macroeconomic factors, spot fund flows and liquidations. The pressure is not tied to a single policy event; yields, oil prices and the depth of demand are all shaping the current market environment.
If buyers can reclaim $85,500 with higher spot trading volume, the first significant area of sell orders above the market lies between $86,500 and $86,750. Above that, Glassnode has recorded the largest one-year liquidation cluster between $87,100 and $95,900, with the densest point near $92,000. A return to that range could increase volatility as short positions are covered, although the outcome would still depend on whether genuine spot demand keeps pace.
If buyers fail to rebuild a price structure above $85,500, Glassnode's model points to another liquidation concentration zone around $75,000. Markets are also preparing for the September consumer price index report on October 14, the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for October 27-28, and the policy meeting scheduled for December 8-9.
Even if the Federal Reserve pauses in October, Bitcoin will have to navigate the inflation data and two upcoming policy meetings with a limited base of buyers. For traders, the recovery of $85,500, changes in spot volume and liquidation risk around $75,000 may provide a clearer read on the market's ability to absorb selling than the rate decision alone.