- Global tech stocks saw a modest rebound after the Independence Day holiday, with the market focusing on upcoming earnings reports from chip giants and large-scale financing listings to assess the valuation of the AI sector.
- Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues to recover, and signals from OPEC to increase production have pushed Brent crude oil prices back to around seventy-one dollars per barrel, effectively easing short-term inflationary pressures in the market.
- Weaker U.S. non-farm employment data prompted a broad retreat in U.S. Treasury yields, but the yen's decline against the dollar intensified, nearing historic lows, increasing the risk of foreign exchange intervention by Japanese authorities.
Tech Sector Awaits Earnings Catalysts
As concerns about an AI valuation bubble rise, momentum in the semiconductor sector has marginally weakened. This week, earnings reports from core companies like Samsung Electronics will directly determine whether funds will flow into other lagging sectors. Meanwhile, South Korean chip giant SK Hynix plans to raise approximately $28 billion in the U.S. for a listing, a massive financing scale that will serve as a key indicator of global risk appetite and the strength of the AI wave.
Increased Energy Supply Eases Inflation
The commodity market has recently seen a shift in supply and demand dynamics, with the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz increasing, coupled with OPEC's plan to raise production targets starting in August, putting pressure on international oil prices. Brent crude futures have fallen to $71.65 per barrel, directly lowering market inflation expectations. If the downward trend in oil prices continues, growth-sensitive sectors that have lagged in recent months may receive support from fund rotation.
U.S. Treasury Yield Decline and Rate Hike Expectations
Influenced by the weaker-than-expected U.S. June non-farm employment report, U.S. Treasuries rebounded across the board. The ten-year Treasury yield fell by two basis points to 4.46%, and the two-year Treasury yield retreated to 4.126%. Although inflationary pressures have eased somewhat, short-term yields still indicate the risk of rate hikes by year-end. The market is currently closely guiding funds to reassess the Federal Reserve's policy path, awaiting the upcoming release of meeting minutes.
Forex Market Divergence and Yen Intervention Threshold
The foreign exchange market is showing significant divergence. The dollar index stabilized around 101.04 after a slight adjustment, while the yen continued to weaken against major currencies. With U.S. interest rates likely to remain high for an extended period, mainstream institutions like Goldman Sachs have raised their twelve-month forecast for the dollar-yen exchange rate to 165. The current yen exchange rate is nearing its lowest level since 1986, with traders intensively testing the Bank of Japan's resolve to intervene in the forex market.
