Oil Prices Rise as Market Rebounds
On Monday, oil prices increased, marking an easing in trade tensions between the world's two largest economies. Previous trade disputes had driven oil prices down to a five-month low last Friday. Brent crude futures rose 0.9% to settle at $63.32 per barrel, while U.S. crude futures gained 1% to close at $59.49 per barrel.
Eased Trade Tensions Boost Oil Prices
In an interview with Fox Business, Bessent stated that trade tensions have significantly eased. DBS Bank analyst Suvro Sarkar also noted that the market's selling pressure seems to have been curbed, and in the short term, oil price prospects will be influenced by the final outcomes of trade negotiations.
Chinese Demand Growth Supports Oil Market
PVM Energy analysts pointed out that any reduction in international trade could negatively impact the oil market. However, from a demand perspective, China's crude oil imports continue to grow. According to Chinese customs data, crude oil imports in September increased by 3.9% year-on-year, reaching 11.5 million barrels per day, providing support for the global oil market. Additionally, OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) has maintained high growth forecasts for global crude oil demand for this year and the next.
OPEC Predicts Supply Gap to Narrow
In its monthly report released on Monday, OPEC mentioned that with the OPEC+ alliance pushing for increased production, the supply gap in the oil market by 2026 will significantly narrow. This prediction further supports the rise in oil prices and injects more confidence into the market.
Middle East Situation Influences Oil Price Gains
Although oil prices have risen amid global demand and eased trade tensions, the prospect of peace in the Middle East continues to limit the gains. According to recent reports, the Palestinian militant group Hamas released the final 20 Israeli hostages under a U.S-mediated ceasefire agreement. While this move may ease regional tensions, geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain, limiting further oil price increases.
Short-term Prospects Uncertain, Dependent on Trade Talks
Currently, the market is filled with uncertainty regarding the short-term trend of oil prices. Analysts indicate that the trajectory of oil prices will largely depend on the further development of global trade situations and the outcomes of related negotiations. Despite strong expectations for global demand growth, the unstable political and economic environment could still have a significant impact on the oil market.
