Dell Technologies, Ciena and three oil refiners have emerged as notable examples of companies receiving higher Wall Street earnings forecasts. FactSet data show significant increases in forward earnings-per-share estimates for the five S&P 500 constituents, driven mainly by stronger artificial intelligence infrastructure orders, improving refining operations and share buybacks.
Analyst upgrades to earnings forecasts are often viewed as evidence of improving fundamentals, particularly when orders, sales and margins are moving in the same direction. But EPS can also benefit from lower share counts created by buybacks, meaning the earnings figure alone does not fully capture the quality of a company's operations.
Dell’s AI server backlog reaches $95 billion
Dell’s 2027 EPS forecast now stands at $30.93, up 33% from $23.27 a month earlier and 19% above the 2026 forecast. Sales rose 40%, 88% and 58% in the company’s most recent three quarters, well ahead of the 8% increase recorded in 2024.
Dell has become a major supplier of enterprise AI solutions. On Sept. 1, the company disclosed an AI server backlog of $95 billion, with much of the order book scheduled for delivery over several years. Dell also raised its full-year revenue forecast for AI-optimized servers from $60 billion to $74 billion and projected annual growth at three times its previous rate. The figures give investors a clearer view of how AI demand could support future revenue.
Dell has an IBD Composite Rating of 99, the highest possible score in that system. Its shares have gained 335% so far this year and are now well above the appropriate buy zone following an early-August breakout. The connection between the higher earnings outlook, valuation and the company’s ability to deliver the backlog remains a key consideration.
Ciena’s order book is largely committed through 2027
Ciena, a supplier of optical networking equipment, has a 2027 EPS forecast of $11.78, up 21% from $9.71 a month ago. Analysts expect earnings to rise 64% year over year. Sales growth exceeded 30% in each of the company’s most recent three quarters, above the 19% increase recorded in 2025.
On Sept. 16, Ciena set a target of maintaining 30% annual revenue growth through 2029 and disclosed a $10 billion backlog, most of which is already committed for delivery in 2027. AI data centers require faster data transmission, supporting demand for optical connectivity systems. Links between data centers have also become an important source of growth for Ciena.
Ciena has an IBD Composite Rating of 81. The stock is still up 60% this year, although it fell 23.5% in the third quarter. Shortages of key components have raised questions about whether the company can deliver its growing AI-related order book on schedule, making supply availability an important operating variable alongside the higher earnings estimates.
Three refiners receive higher earnings forecasts
Valero Energy’s 2027 consensus EPS forecast has risen 38% to $42.01 from $30.44 a month earlier. It remains 12.5% below the 2026 forecast. Sales increased 7% and 49% in the company’s two most recent quarters after eight consecutive quarters of declines. In addition to petroleum refining, Valero operates renewable diesel and ethanol businesses, which provide some diversification from its core refining operations.
Valero has an IBD Composite Rating of 98. Its shares have gained 142% this year and are trading in extended territory after repeatedly reaching new highs.
Marathon Petroleum’s 2027 EPS forecast has increased 32% to $45.81 from $34.83 a month earlier, but remains 19% below the 2026 forecast. Sales rose 9% and 58% in the two most recent quarters, following six quarters of declines or low-single-digit growth. Marathon has also repeatedly exceeded earnings expectations and used share buybacks to reduce its share count, supporting EPS.
Refining margins, measured in part by crack spreads, benefited from supply disruptions linked to the wars in Iran and Ukraine. Marathon’s midstream pipeline and logistics operations can provide some support when refining spreads narrow. The stock has an IBD Composite Rating of 99 and has risen 147% since the start of 2026, more than doubling over that period.
Phillips 66’s 2027 EPS forecast has risen 13% to $25.45 from $22.47 a month earlier, although it is 9% below the 2026 forecast. Sales increased 55% in the latest quarter, after growth ranging from declines to single-digit gains in the previous 10 quarters. Alongside refining, Phillips 66 operates midstream, chemicals and lubricants businesses, giving it a more diversified revenue mix than some peers.
Phillips 66 has an IBD Composite Rating of 98. Its shares are up 103% this year and are trading near the top of the buy zone that followed an early-September breakout from a rising base.
Jefferies warns refining margins may be priced too high
Although earnings forecasts for the refiners have moved higher, concerns are also growing that market expectations for sustained high margins may be excessive. On Monday, Jefferies downgraded Marathon Petroleum and Valero Energy to “Hold,” saying their share prices may already reflect assumptions that mid-cycle refining margins will remain above sustainable levels through 2030.
Future earnings growth for the refiners will therefore depend not only on sales and buybacks, but also on whether crack spreads can remain elevated. A recovery in supply, changes in energy-market conditions or a decline in refining margins could prompt another adjustment to the current earnings forecasts.
S&P 500 third-quarter earnings growth forecast reaches 28.9%
Wall Street has also raised its broader earnings expectations ahead of the third-quarter reporting season. FactSet data show S&P 500 earnings are expected to increase 28.9% year over year, up from the 26.7% estimate at the start of the quarter. If achieved, that would mark the index’s third consecutive quarter of earnings growth above 25%. The third-quarter reporting season is expected to begin in mid-October.
Beyond Dell, companies contributing to the higher aggregate forecast include Nvidia, Cisco, Intel, JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs. Analysts currently expect S&P 500 earnings to grow 31.8% in 2026, with revenue up 12.1%. For 2027, earnings growth is projected at 15.2% and revenue growth at 9.1%.
Dell’s and Ciena’s backlogs offer relatively specific evidence of AI infrastructure demand and potential future revenue. For the refiners, higher earnings forecasts depend more heavily on margins, energy-market disruptions and capital-return policies. Where earnings estimates and share prices have both moved sharply higher, upcoming results will need to show whether orders are delivered, costs remain under control and margins hold up.