As the market increasingly bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, several Federal Reserve officials have recently spoken out, clearly stating that controlling inflation remains a top priority and warning that tariffs might trigger persistent price pressures, indicating no rush to cut interest rates in the short term.
On April 10th, Eastern Time, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee emphasized in his speech at the New York Economic Club that the Federal Reserve's decisions may not necessarily align with market expectations. The bank's goal is to find a stable path rather than make hasty decisions. He pointed out that during these turbulent times, the role of the Federal Reserve is crucial, and prudent decision-making is critical. Goolsbee mentioned that although the hard economic data shows positive performance and unemployment is near full employment levels, he remains wary of potential inflationary pressures, especially the stagflation shock brought by tariffs.
On the same day, Boston Fed President Susan Collins also stated that the Federal Reserve might still have room to cut rates this year. However, she pointed out that tariffs have pushed up the prices of U.S. goods, which might delay the pace of rate cuts. She believes that maintaining stable interest rates is the best choice for now, waiting for the economic impact of tariffs to become clearer before considering further policy adjustments.
Dallas Fed President Logan also warned in his speech that after recent inflation, Americans' expectations of future price hikes may become unstable. He emphasized that preventing price increases caused by tariffs from spawning stubborn inflation is crucial for achieving the Federal Reserve's dual goals. Logan also noted that the Trump administration's tariffs might increase unemployment and exacerbate inflation, and the persistence of inflation's impact will depend on whether businesses can quickly pass on the costs to consumers.
As of April 10th, U.S. stocks experienced a broad decline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 2.5%, the S&P 500 Index decreased by 3.46%, and the Nasdaq Index dropped even more, by 4.31%. These market fluctuations reflect the high level of attention the market pays to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction.
