Emergency Martial Law and Market Reaction
Following the declaration of emergency martial law, the South Korean stock and currency markets faced sharp declines. The Korean stock index dropped significantly, and there was increased pressure from foreign capital outflows, especially amid rising domestic political uncertainty, which rendered investor sentiment particularly fragile. The Korean won fell by over 2% against the US dollar initially, but then rebounded to narrow the loss to 1%. This fluctuation reflects the market's nervousness and the keen focus of investors on developments in the situation.
Government Measures and Market Outlook
At 4:00 AM Beijing time on December 4, the South Korean government convened a State Council meeting and resolved to lift the emergency martial law. With the lifting of martial law, the fall of the Korean won against the dollar further narrowed to 0.8%. However, a Bank of Korea official stated that the Bank would hold a special meeting at 8:00 AM Beijing time to discuss measures to address market volatility, stabilize the exchange rate, and restore market confidence.
Risk of Foreign Capital Sell-off and Future Trends
Foreign exchange expert Brad Bechtel noted that the South Korean leadership has previously taken similar emergency measures during significant political upheavals or power transitions, yet this martial law has nonetheless raised market concerns. He believes the Korean won will remain volatile, particularly if foreign investors begin to offload Korean assets on a large scale, especially South Korean government bonds, which could put additional pressure on the won. The actions of foreign investors will be crucial in determining the market's direction, particularly regarding whether they continue to hold South Korean government bonds. If foreign investors sell off bonds due to political uncertainty, it could lead to greater downward pressure on both the Korean stock market and the won.
This declaration of emergency martial law marks a significant shift in South Korea's political landscape and highlights the market's sensitivity to political stability. In the coming days, the Bank of Korea and the government will face enormous challenges in regaining market confidence and stabilizing the exchange rate, which are imperative tasks ahead of them. Investor attitudes and the flow of foreign capital will directly impact the performance of the South Korean stock market and won.
