On Thursday, international oil prices closed higher on the first trading day of 2025, driven primarily by investor optimism about a recovery in demand. However, significant increases in U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories limited the gains. Brent crude futures rose 1.7% to $75.93 per barrel, while U.S. crude increased 2% to close at $73.13 per barrel.
According to the latest inventory data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. gasoline inventories surged by 7.7 million barrels last week to 231.4 million barrels, and distillate inventories rose by 6.4 million barrels to 122.9 million barrels. This inventory growth far exceeded market expectations, indicating increased supply pressure post-holidays. Concurrently, U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 1.2 million barrels to 415.6 million barrels, though this decline was less than analysts' expectations of 2.8 million barrels.
Geopolitical risks and macroeconomic policies are also key focuses for the market. Investors are weighing the potential economic stimulus measures that the Trump administration might implement and their potential impact on boosting demand, while also considering the negative effects of proposed tariffs. Additionally, the crude oil market is influenced by the geopolitical tensions at the start of the new year, adding to market uncertainties.
Traders are turning their attention to the upcoming release of the U.S. ISM manufacturing data, a key economic indicator that could provide more clues about the next movements in oil prices. Although current oil prices are up due to expectations of demand recovery, the overall trend for 2025 may face greater pressure. The continued increase in global supply and the measures taken by OPEC+ to stabilize the market may not fully offset the impact of weak demand.
Analysts expect that oil prices in 2025 might hover around $70 per barrel. The dual pressures of inventory growth and global supply expansion may inject more uncertainty into the market and present challenges to OPEC+'s efforts to bolster oil prices.
