Goldman Sachs Sees Brent Crude Ranging Between $80 and $90 Amid Middle East Uncertainty

Summary：Goldman expects Brent at $80–90 until a U.S.-Iran deal or escalation, as disrupted Middle East flows and Asian buying tighten global oil supplies.

The Goldman Sachs analyst team expects Brent crude oil prices to fluctuate between $80 and $90 per barrel, unless a new agreement is reached between the US and Iran or there is a significant escalation in Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts.
After the US canceled planned strikes against Iran, spot and futures crude oil prices returned to around $80 per barrel, while negotiations between Iran and Oman regarding the management of the Strait of Hormuz have entered the final stage.
The physical crude oil market is experiencing a marginal tightening of supply and demand, with global visible crude oil inventories decreasing by an average of 6.3 million barrels per day over the past two weeks, and significant declines in oil flow through key Persian Gulf and Red Sea channels.

Geopolitical Premium and Range Pricing Anchoring

The Goldman Sachs strategy team points out that based on OECD commercial inventory indicators and historical supply-demand relationships, the fair value of Brent crude oil is approximately $80 per barrel. The current market price only includes a moderate geopolitical risk premium, reflecting investors' cautious attitude towards the progress of US-Iran negotiations. If the US-Iran situation stalls or local conflicts intensify, the risk premium will be quickly reassessed, pushing the upper limit of the range higher.

Significant Supply-Demand Tightening in the Physical Market

Over the past two weeks, global visible crude oil inventories have rapidly decreased at a rate of 6.3 million barrels per day, highlighting substantial disruptions on the physical supply side. Oil flow in the Persian Gulf has dropped to 36% of pre-war levels, with an average daily flow of about 9 million barrels. Major channel blockages have forced traders to adjust transportation routes, temporarily increasing freight and documentation costs in the spot market.

Diversification of Alternative Pipelines and Export Flows

Saudi Arabia has improved transportation efficiency through the SUMED pipeline, increasing the oil flow to the Ain Sukhna terminal by 1 million barrels per day over the past week, effectively alleviating some of the shortfall caused by Red Sea channel blockages. Meanwhile, due to drone attacks targeting tankers, Russian crude oil and condensate exports have decreased by 1.3 million barrels per day over two weeks, leading to regional diversification in the global supply structure.

Strong Import Demand Supports Underlying Prices

Driven by buying opportunities from previously low oil prices, Asia's net imports of crude oil and condensate have increased by 5.6 million barrels per day, with China contributing a marginal increase of 2.3 million barrels per day. The restocking demand from Asian refineries at lower prices provides significant support for oil prices, and if demand remains strong, it will further compress global commercial inventories and push oil prices higher.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market carries risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account individual users' specific investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investing based on this is at one's own responsibility.

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Written byTraderKnows

Created date:2026-08-04 15:58

Last Updated:2026-08-05 05:24

Independent Analysis: Manually researched and fact-checked by the TraderKnows Compliance Team, based on public regulatory records.

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