- The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) November soybean futures settlement price fell by 13 cents, closing at $11.7925 per bushel, with intraday fluctuations ranging between 11 and 14 cents.
- The probability of rainfall in the main production areas of the U.S. Midwest has increased, leading the market to reprice the risk premium associated with drought stress, resulting in a concentrated release of short-term selling pressure.
- The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) confirmed the export of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans to China, while the Argentine Grain Export and Processing Association (CIARA-CEC) confirmed that labor strikes have caused shipping disruptions, providing a buffer against downward pressure.
Revised Rainfall Forecasts Drive Selling Pressure on the Market
During Tuesday's trading, traders actively adjusted their positions, with the core catalyst being signs of improvement in the rainfall models for the main soybean production areas in the U.S. Midwest. Weather forecasts indicate that rainfall in the coming days during the critical growth period will effectively alleviate previous concerns about high temperatures and drought. The rapid retreat of weather risk premiums has put pressure on the November main contract, leading to valuation adjustments across all contracts ranging from 11 to 14 cents.
Crop Quality Stabilizes and Export Demand Increases
From a fundamental perspective, the U.S. soybean crop quality rate announced on Monday remained stable compared to the previous week, not continuing the decline from the week before. However, the current absolute value of the quality rate remains at its lowest level for the same period in the past three years, highlighting the irreversible physiological damage caused by earlier droughts. Meanwhile, the USDA's daily reporting system confirmed that private exporters sold 132,000 metric tons of soybeans to China, indicating that demand for physical purchases at low price levels remains resilient.
Argentine Shipping Strike Intensifies South American Supply Disruptions
On the South American supply side, the Argentine Grain Export and Processing Association stated that the strike action by maritime workers has led to a significant number of grain ships being unable to enter or exit major grain ports normally. As a major global exporter of soybean meal and oil, if Argentina's logistical paralysis continues, it may force some international buyers to turn to North America for supplies, partially offsetting the downward pressure brought by adverse weather conditions.
