- Influenced by signs of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate hike expectations have receded, and the spot gold price broke through $4,110 per ounce in early trading, rising 1.45% during the day.
- The Hong Kong stock gold sector was boosted by the rise in spot gold prices, with all stocks rising. Everest Gold (1815:HK) led the gains with an increase of over 14%, while China Silver Group (0815:HK) and Lingbao Gold (3330:HK) also rose.
- The sharp decline in international oil prices and the weakening of the US dollar index are interconnected. The retreat in oil prices has alleviated global inflation concerns, and if the Fed's future monetary policy path becomes more accommodative, gold prices denominated in dollars may receive sustained support.
Spot Gold Price Breaks Highs Amid Geopolitical Risk Reassessment
The temporary easing of the Middle East situation has led to a marginal shift in market risk aversion sentiment. The Fed's future policy path expectations have been adjusted accordingly, with spot gold quickly breaking through the $4,110 per ounce mark, rising 1.45% during the day. Although some safe-haven funds took profits after the news was announced, the decline in the US dollar index still provided pricing support for the precious metals market. If diplomatic negotiations progress smoothly, risk appetite may further shift towards risk assets in the short term.
Hong Kong Stock Gold Sector Strengthens and Capital Choices
The surge in spot gold prices has significantly warmed the sentiment in the Hong Kong stock gold and silver sectors. Everest Gold (1815:HK) led the sector with a gain of over 14%, China Silver Group (0815:HK) rose more than 7%, and Lingbao Gold (3330:HK) and Zijin Gold International (2099:HK) also followed suit. Capital flows indicate that with spot prices remaining strong, the market tends to reassess small and medium-sized gold targets with production flexibility and valuation advantages, showing both differentiation and catch-up trends within the sector.
Oil Price Plunge Eases Inflation and Fed Expectations
The temporary halt in military actions between the US and Iran has pressured the international oil market, with WTI crude futures falling over 6% and briefly dropping below $84 per barrel, while Brent crude also fell more than 5%. The rapid retreat in oil prices has effectively alleviated concerns about secondary inflation, thereby reducing the political and economic pressure on the Fed to maintain high interest rates. If future inflation data continues to improve, rising expectations for a rate cut cycle will lower US Treasury yields, indirectly benefiting the holding returns of gold assets.
Market Divergence Under Asset Interconnection and Future Outlook
The sharp fluctuations in the commodity market highlight the transmission effect of macro variables on cross-asset valuations. Large gold companies such as Zhaojin Mining (1818:HK) followed the rise during the session, indicating that institutional investors still maintain confidence in long-term gold allocation. If the trend of declining inflation is confirmed and the US dollar index continues to bottom out, the revaluation logic of the precious metals sector will shift from a single safe-haven drive to a liquidity easing drive. Investors need to closely monitor subsequent diplomatic developments and central bank monetary policy statements.
