Selling by corporate bitcoin holders has reached a rare level: the corporate bitcoin treasury sell-to-buy ratio has fallen to 89.58%, its fourth reading below 90%. MSCI is due to announce index changes on the evening of Nov. 11, and whether Strategy remains in its indexes could affect holdings by passive funds that track them.
Corporate bitcoin sales outpace purchases
The ratio compares companies’ cumulative bitcoin purchases with their sales. At 89.58%, it points to a recent increase in selling relative to buying. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, said on X that corporate bitcoin treasuries were in a selling phase, adding that similar readings had historically coincided with periods of market stress.
Public companies sold a combined 108,247 bitcoin in 2026. Mining companies seeking to repay debt have been among the main sources of those sales. The activity reflects balance-sheet and financing pressures at some firms, while raising questions about whether corporate treasuries are shifting from net buying to net selling.
Earlier readings preceded further bitcoin declines
The ratio previously fell below 90% in December 2019, June 2022 and September 2024. In each case, bitcoin eventually rose to between 2.1 and 9.6 times its price when the signal appeared. Those gains did not come immediately: bitcoin first fell by 11% to 46% after the readings.
The indicator therefore points to elevated corporate selling, but cannot by itself confirm a market bottom or signal when prices might turn. Past episodes also show that further declines can follow a similar reading.
MSCI decision could affect passive demand for Strategy
Investors are also watching MSCI’s index review. Changes to index constituents can alter the positions held by passive funds tracking those benchmarks, making Strategy’s status a focus. MSCI is expected to announce the changes on the evening of Nov. 11; before the announcement, it remains unclear whether Strategy will be removed.
The volume of corporate bitcoin sales, debt repayment needs behind some of those sales, and MSCI’s decision on Strategy are separate factors in focus. The 89.58% ratio reflects selling pressure among companies, while an index change could affect passive-fund holdings in Strategy. Neither, on its own, determines bitcoin’s price direction.