US gasoline prices have retreated in recent weeks, but the number of days the national average stays above $4 a gallon this year could surpass the record set in 2022. The average price for regular gasoline was $4.35 a gallon on Monday, Oct. 12, according to AAA—about 4 cents lower than a month earlier but roughly $1.27 above the same time last year. Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis, expects the cumulative number of days above $4 this year to match the 2022 record as early as Oct. 14.
Gasoline eases from May peak but remains elevated
The national average topped $4.50 a gallon in May before declining. Even after that pullback, JPMorgan analysts said last month that gasoline prices remained at a record high for this point in the year compared with previous years.
Prices staying above $4 a gallon continue to weigh on household travel costs. In energy markets, the decline from the peak has not removed uncertainty around supply and seasonal demand.
Diesel at $6.25 as winter fuel demand approaches
The national average for diesel was $6.25 a gallon on Monday, about 10 cents below its level a month earlier. Diesel is widely used in farming, trucking and delivery, so price changes can feed through to the cost of goods and services. Refineries produce diesel and heating oil from the same crude inputs, and shifts in demand for both fuels as winter approaches could affect diesel prices.
Futures prices also show the scale of this year’s gains across energy products. AlphaSense data put gasoline futures up more than 86% year to date and heating oil futures up more than 124%. Heating oil futures are often used as a gauge of diesel price trends.
Geopolitical concerns and refinery outages affect supply
A deadly attack in the Middle East has heightened concern about regional tensions, while questions have also grown over energy ceasefire arrangements involving Russia and Ukraine. On Monday, Brent crude rose to $106 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell to $93, leaving the two benchmarks moving in opposite directions.
Along the US Gulf Coast, crews continued assessing damage after Hurricane Isaias. The storm forced two major refineries to shut down, making refinery operations an important factor to watch for fuel supply. Gasoline and diesel have eased from recent highs, but the potential record number of days gasoline spends above $4 a gallon, alongside gains in diesel and heating oil futures, shows that energy costs remain under pressure.