During the Asian trading session on Monday, international oil prices showed slight consolidation. Brent crude fell slightly by $0.05 to $65.15 per barrel, while WTI crude was at $61.76, with more actively traded July contracts slipping $0.04 to $61.93. Although early market fluctuations were limited, investor sentiment remained complex as they awaited clearer fundamental signals to determine the next direction for oil prices.
Last Week's Gains Boosted by Trade Sentiment
Looking back at last week, both Brent and WTI recorded a weekly gain of over 1%, thanks to a warming in risk appetite from easing global trade tensions. The market was previously buoyed by the "tariff suspension" news, which led to a phase of recovery in global energy demand expectations.
However, the focus this week turns to the release of significant economic data from a major Asian nation, including April's industrial production, fixed asset investment, and retail sales. ANZ Bank noted in a report that any underperformance in these data could quickly suppress market optimism, thereby exerting downward pressure on oil prices.
Uncertainty in Iran Nuclear Talks, Geopolitical Tensions Escalate
Negotiations over the Iran nuclear deal have again reached a stalemate. U.S. envoy Witteker stated on Sunday that any agreement must include a core provision on Iran's "cessation of uranium enrichment," a firm stance met with swift rejection by Iran, emphasizing that uranium enrichment is a non-negotiable sovereign right. These differences cast renewed doubt on the timeline for Iranian oil supplies returning to the international market.
Additionally, news of Russia seizing a Greek-flagged oil tanker further stirred market emotions, posing fresh uncertainties about the European energy supply chain. Meanwhile, data from Baker Hughes in the U.S. showed a decline in the active oil rig count to 473, the lowest since the start of the year, indicating that American producers are cautiously managing the pace of production capacity expansion.
Technical Indicators Suggest a Choppy Uptrend, Distinct Resistance and Support
From a technical perspective, WTI crude has been gradually rising within an ascending channel after rebounding from its early May low of around $56. Currently, prices are above the 20-day moving average, with the 5-day and 10-day averages showing a "golden cross," indicating a strong short-term trend.
However, observations from the MACD and RSI indicators also reveal signs of upward fatigue. While the MACD remains in a bullish crossover, the divergence in momentum bars is notable, and the RSI is approaching the slightly overbought zone at 70, signaling weakening bullish momentum.
Specifically, if WTI effectively breaks above $63.20 and holds, it is likely to target the $64.50—$65.00 range. Conversely, a drop below the $61 support may lead to a retest of $60, or even the lower boundary of the channel near $58.
Conclusion: Awaiting Catalysts for Directional Breakthrough
Oil prices are currently in a technical consolidation phase, maintaining an overall "mild upward trend—high-level volatility" structure. Moving forward, whether there is a breakthrough in the Iran nuclear deal and whether economic data from major Asian countries exceed expectations will be key catalysts guiding the direction of oil prices.
In the short term, investors should beware of sudden disturbances in news, and flexibly respond to the market's tug-of-war structure by combining technical signals.
