USD/JPY closed lower last week after retreating from 154.47. This week, the key question is whether the pair can hold support at 152.81 and reclaim 156.43. A break above that resistance would put the recent high of 160.45 back in view, while a fall below 152.81 could signal that the rebound from 139.87 has run its course.
152.81 and 156.43 set the near-term range
The pair weakened after meeting resistance at 154.47 last week. Support at 152.81 is the first level to watch. As long as it holds, USD/JPY could recover above 156.43 and then test 160.45.
A break below 152.81 would change the technical picture. The advance from the 139.87 low could be over, leaving scope for a broader correction rather than a brief pullback. For now, whether support holds is more significant than last week's lower close alone, which does not confirm a trend reversal.
A break below 152.81 brings 148.57 into focus
If USD/JPY falls through 152.81, the next level to monitor is 148.57. This marks the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the advance from 139.87 to 160.45. A decline to that area would indicate a deeper correction of the earlier rally, though the level itself would not confirm a change in direction.
If the pullback extends further, attention could turn to support near 144.65, the 38.2% retracement of the same advance. The levels at 152.81, 148.57 and 144.65 form a descending set of potential support areas; price action will determine whether each one holds.
A move above 156.43 would put 160.45 back in view
On the upside, the pair would first need to regain 156.43 to raise the prospect of another test of 160.45. A break above 160.45 would extend the advance from 139.87, with the next level to watch near 164.50. That area represents the 123.6% extension of the move from 139.87 to 160.45.
This week's technical focus is the range between support at 152.81 and resistance at 156.43. If support holds and resistance gives way, 160.45 becomes the next level in view. A break below 152.81 would instead shift attention to 148.57 and then 144.65. The levels provide reference points; the pair's direction will depend on whether it breaks above or below them.