- After entering July, Bitcoin once again surpassed $60,000, briefly rising to around $61,300. The price rebound not only lifted Ethereum, Solana, and XRP, but also significantly improved the overall risk appetite in the crypto market.
- The core catalyst for this rebound comes from improved macro sentiment. The market interpreted statements from Washington about AI productivity gradually improving the supply side as a sign that future inflation pressures may ease, thereby enhancing the imagination for accommodative policies.
- Meanwhile, the dollar index retreated from its recent highs, providing valuation flexibility for Bitcoin. However, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a record net outflow in June, indicating that the price rise does not mean institutional funds have fully returned.
Improved Macro Expectations Boost Risk Assets
When investors begin to bet that the future policy environment does not need further tightening, high-volatility assets usually benefit first. Bitcoin's quick return to the round number threshold is a direct reflection of the warming macro risk appetite.
Weaker Dollar Releases Upward Space
The view that dollar long trades are overly crowded has recently gained traction, leading to a pullback in the dollar index. For the crypto market, which is priced in dollars and highly dependent on liquidity, a retreat in the dollar often creates a more favorable short-term funding environment.
Institutional Funds Remain Cautious
Despite the rebound in cryptocurrency prices, ETF fund flows remain weak, indicating that traditional institutions have not simultaneously shifted. Some funds continue to flow into AI-related stocks and other assets with more profitable narratives, suggesting that the recovery in the crypto market still has a speculative component.
Whether the July Rebound Can Continue Remains to Be Seen
If Bitcoin can hold steady above $60,000, the market will continue to look towards the $62,000 to $64,000 range; if it falls below the key level again, support around $58,000 will be tested once more. Although short-term sentiment has improved, trend confirmation still requires more incremental buying.
