Amidst the global market's keen interest in trade prospects and the energy supply-demand landscape, the meeting between U.S. President Trump and Italian Prime Minister Meloni has sent positive signals. Trump stated, “There should not be much problem in reaching an agreement with Europe or anyone else,” indicating a possible easing of tariff disputes between the U.S. and Europe. This statement has raised market hopes that both sides may reach a consensus on trade frictions, thereby boosting global risk assets with renewed confidence.
Meanwhile, the U.S. government has imposed a new round of sanctions on Iranian oil exports, targeting critical aspects of Iran’s crude oil supply chain. These new measures are expected to further reduce Iran's export capacity, reinforcing expectations of a tightening global oil supply market. This action undoubtedly intensifies geopolitical risks in the Middle East, while also driving up crude oil prices.
On the oil production front, the latest report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reveals that countries like Iraq and Kazakhstan have voluntarily submitted further production cut plans to offset the surplus effects caused by previous overproduction. Although historical experience suggests there are uncertainties in the execution of production cuts by some member countries, the market generally believes that OPEC+ still possesses the ability to stabilize the market through coordinated actions.
Influenced by the combination of trade easing expectations, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and production cut plans, international oil prices have risen overall this week, with a cumulative increase of nearly 5%. However, some international institutions have recently revised down their forecasts for oil prices and crude oil demand growth. They are concerned that the U.S.'s stringent tariff policies might trigger retaliatory measures from multiple countries worldwide, thereby weakening global trade momentum, leading to a chain reaction of slowing economic growth, and ultimately suppressing energy consumption.
Furthermore, the International Energy Agency has also warned that, despite the recent tightening supply, the global oil market still faces a structural risk of oversupply in the medium to long term, which will continue to put pressure on oil prices.
From a technical perspective, current oil prices are in a typical oversold rebound phase and may soon encounter significant resistance around the $65 mark. If this threshold is not effectively breached, there is a possibility of a second downward movement, necessitating caution among market participants when chasing price increases.
