One, Index Direction.
On Tuesday, the index rebounded as expected, and Wednesday's volatile decline was within expectations. In practical terms, following yesterday's review:
Early in the morning, the ChiNext Index surged rapidly, touching the five-day moving average, and a small reduction in positions was executed. The index perspective remains consistent with the above statement, and if it falls below 2855 on Thursday or Friday, a significant increase in positions will be initiated.
As of now, whether it's the overall trend or short-term rebounds, highs, and lows, our judgments have been quite accurate, with no directional errors. Once or twice may be luck, but being consistently right is a sign of strength.
Two, Short-term Sentiment.
Changbaishan had 7 daily limit-up stocks, indicating a contrary index trend. Mid-cap stocks lagged behind significantly, with only 4 limit-up stocks in Aishida and 3 in Zhongxing Business. Low-priced stocks had a good promotion rate, with 2 daily limit-up stocks and a better limit-up rate than Wednesday. From the perspective of sentiment cycles, Changbaishan's 7 limit-up stocks should act as a ceiling. From another perspective, if it exceeds market expectations and smoothly advances to the 8 limit-up levels, it will boost short-term sentiment. A double-edged sword.
Three, Hot Sectors.
Retail Business: The leader is Zhongxing Business, opening flat but experiencing significant intraday selling pressure with record-breaking trading volume, yet not collapsing. Taiping Bird had 2 daily limit-up stocks, and several other stocks such as Guofang Group, Quanjude, Goldlok Holdings, and Shenzhen China also hit the limit-up.
Continue to watch on Thursday. With the recovery in tourism and consumption, sectors like tourism and hotels, new retail, leisure food, and textiles and clothing were prominent on Thursday. These focus points should be monitored not only today and tomorrow but for a long time throughout the year.
New Energy Sector: As mentioned before, it not only withstands significant index drops recently but also acts as a vanguard whenever the index stabilizes. In the photovoltaic sector, focus on quartz sand in the upstream and BC and HJT cells in the midstream, as well as inverter companies like Jinglai Technology and Sungrow Power.
This month also has a catalytic event: the North America Solar Expo will open on January 17th, and it is expected that several photovoltaic companies will participate. From a data perspective, January's overall module production data is better than expected.
In the lithium battery sector, focus on lithium mining and salt lake lithium extraction, such as Tibet Mineral.
Tourism: The tourism sector driven by ice and snow tourism has been a recent highlight, but as we analyzed, first, there might be differentiation on Thursday after the peak on Wednesday, and second, if the index stabilizes after stopping the decline, the tourism sector may not necessarily be the strongest and may not break through.
More likely, it's the choice of short-term funds under the weak trend. The entry posture is not to chase highs, but to patiently wait for opportunities after a pullback.
Smart Machines and Robots: Aishida leads the way, with smaller companies like Do New Technology, Aikang Technology, and Gongyuan Shares. Some forecasts predict that the market size of Chinese robots will reach $25.1 billion in 2024.
Stanford University and Berkeley, in collaboration with Google, have released a home robot called Mobile ALOHA, which has garnered attention through demonstration videos. In addition, the 2024 CES in Las Vegas will inject catalysts into sectors such as AI, robots, and consumer electronics.
The robot industry chain includes reducers, servo systems, controllers, robot bodies, and robot integration, among others. Representative reducer companies include Xinshida, Green Harmonic, Qinchuan Machine Tool, and Southern Precision.
Representative servo system companies include Boke Shares, Baozhong Precision, Huazhong CNC, and Wolong Electric Drive. Controllers mainly include Weichuang Electric, Kelida, and Mingzhi Electric. Robot bodies mainly include robots, Easton, and Xinshida. Robot integration companies include Huachangda, Kaida, and Boshare, among others.
There was a surge before the New Year, with limited short-term heights, but it can be considered as one of the themes throughout the year. After all, the development of smart machines and robots is advancing rapidly, and in the foreseeable future, they will shine brightly.
Four, Conclusion.
Prepare for Thursday in two ways. There is a higher probability that the Shanghai Composite Index will fall below 2855 points on Thursday or Friday. The strategy is to start buying after it falls, and increase holdings. If the index strongly resists decline at this level and rebounds, the mid-term holdings will remain unchanged, and the small positions will be used for short-term sentiment consecutive limit-ups.
