On Tuesday (December 10), the CBOT market saw mixed trends in major agricultural futures. The main corn contract slightly fell by 0.11%, soybeans rose by 0.15%, while wheat dropped by 0.18%. The recent CBOT grain futures market has been influenced by global market dynamics and changes in fund positions, leading to overall mixed trends. Corn futures prices reached the highest point since June, while soybeans are under downward pressure due to expectations of a bountiful South American harvest.
Corn:
Recently, corn futures have been strong, with the CBOT March contract rising to $4.42 per bushel, marking a new high since June. This surge has been driven by speculative buying and favorable fundamentals. The upcoming USDA supply and demand report might lower the 2024/25 corn carry-over stock expectations due to strong export demand and increased domestic ethanol production. Last week, US corn export inspections reached 1.0497 million tons, exceeding market expectations, with this year's cumulative export volume already 3 million tons ahead of last year. Internationally, Spain recently purchased 400,000 to 500,000 tons of US corn, further indicating global demand for low-priced US corn.
Soybeans:
Soybean futures slightly declined, with the main CBOT contract reported at $9.90 per bushel, influenced by good weather in South America, increasing harvest expectations. Recent rains in Brazil's main planting areas have improved crop growth conditions, boosting market optimism. However, US soybean prices remain competitive, attracting some buying interest. Data shows that China's grain reserve agency has booked two shipments of US soybeans, planning to ship in March next year. Domestic basis quotes remain stable, with ample supply in the spot market due to high crushing capacity. Funds have shown mixed sentiments towards soybeans, with short-term positions displaying a net long trend, although the long-term view remains net short, reflecting differing assessments of South American production and global supply-demand conditions.
Wheat:
Wheat futures rose 1.5 cents, to $5.58-3/4 per bushel, supported by technical factors and controversial data on Russian crop conditions. Un-germinated winter wheat in Russia reached over 37%, a historic high, causing market disturbances. However, Russian agencies argue this may result from delayed germination due to climate change. Low selling intentions among US farmers added pressure on the supply side. Cold weather in the southern US plains poses a risk to some crops, but the overall impact is limited.
Soybean Meal:
Soybean meal futures saw a slight rebound, with the CBOT January contract rising to $289.60 per short ton, but overall still hovering at a low level. With US crushing capacity at a record high, soybean meal supply is abundant, limiting price increase potential. Spot market basis remains stable, market sentiment is relatively subdued, and investors await the latest USDA inventory data.
Overall, although fund positions show optimism towards corn and wheat, the outlook for soybeans and soybean oil remains more pessimistic. The current market trends are influenced by South American weather, US export demand, and the upcoming USDA report. In the short term, the agricultural futures market may continue to experience fluctuating adjustments.
