Last Friday, U.S. stocks plummeted for the second consecutive day, with the Nasdaq officially entering a bear market and the Dow Jones Industrial Average confirmed to be in a correction phase. As U.S. President Trump announced a comprehensive increase in tariffs, global trade tensions escalated sharply, triggering the largest sell-off since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, and investor panic surged.
The three major indices experienced the worst two-day performance outside of the early COVID period during Trump's administration. From Thursday to Friday last week, the Dow Jones dropped 9.3%, the S&P 500 fell 10.5%, and the Nasdaq plunged 11.4%.
The Trump administration's move to raise tariffs to their highest level in over a century has not only raised deep concerns about the U.S. economic outlook but also heightened expectations of potential retaliation from major global trade partners. Under this dual pressure, market confidence took a significant hit, with the CBOE Volatility Index closing at its highest point since April 2020.
As of last Friday's close, the Nasdaq plummeted 5.82% to 15,587.79 points, significantly dropping from the all-time high of 20,173.89 points set on December 16 last year, technically entering a bear market. The Dow Jones fell 5.50% to 38,314.86 points, more than 15% below its peak from last December, marking an entry into the correction territory. The S&P 500 also plunged 5.97% to close at 5,074.08 points, the lowest closing level in nearly 11 months.
Market analysts generally believe this crash is not just a short-term technical adjustment but a focused release of deep-seated policy direction concerns. Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, noted: "Currently, the market's behavior clearly indicates a lack of buy-in to the new tariff policy, and the question is whether the government will truly stick to this path."
Governments around the world swiftly responded to U.S. tariff policies, intensifying fears of a comprehensive economic slowdown. In its latest report, JPMorgan Chase noted that the probability of a global recession before year-end has risen to 60%, significantly up from the previous estimate of 40%.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell also commented on the situation for the first time. He warned that the scale of this tariff increase "far exceeds expectations," with inflationary pressures and risks of an economic slowdown not to be underestimated, but the Fed is currently uncertain about the measures to take in response.
U.S. Treasury yields fell, further impacting the financial sector, particularly bank stocks, which were severely dragged down. The S&P banking sector fell by 7.3%, and the increased market expectation of global central banks lowering interest rates also weakened the profitability outlook for financial institutions.
All 11 sector indexes of the S&P 500 fell that day, with declines exceeding 4.5%. The energy sector led the decline for the second consecutive day, dropping 8.7%. U.S. crude oil prices also fell sharply by 7.3%, reflecting the market's extremely pessimistic outlook for future demand.
Currently, market participants are closely watching the upcoming policy moves from the government and whether the Federal Reserve will intervene, making the coming weeks a critical period for determining the direction of U.S. stocks.
