In addressing crime and corruption, both candidates have an equal approval rating, each receiving 40% of the voter support. In a July poll, Harris was 5 percentage points behind Trump, but this gap has now narrowed, indicating increasing voter support for Harris. On handling extremism, Harris leads with 42% support compared to Trump's 36%. However, on immigration policy, Trump holds an advantage with 45% voter support, while Harris has 37%.
Overall, neither candidate has garnered widespread support. The survey shows that 59% of voters have a negative view of Trump, while 52% have a negative view of Harris. Harris has support from 47% of voters, while Trump is supported by 39%.
UBS analysis suggests that the outcome of the U.S. presidential election may only impact the credit market on a micro level and is unlikely to have a significant effect on the macro economy. Historical data indicates that the credit market typically sees some gains in the weeks leading up to the election. UBS's analysis of credit spreads since 1920 shows that investment-grade credit spreads usually tighten in the three months before an election. Furthermore, UBS data suggests that a Democratic win is generally more favorable for credit spreads than a Republican win.
UBS strategists also noted that the election results may have little impact on speculative stocks but that an Harris victory could negatively affect energy, automotive, and aerospace/defense stocks more significantly.
The World Gold Council stated that gold's performance is more influenced by market uncertainty rather than specific political stances. Additionally, Harris's selection of a vice-presidential running mate may further increase market uncertainty. Post-election, the U.S. national debt and deficit levels could still concern investors, maintaining high demand for gold.
Although historically the election results have had minimal direct impact on gold, the current high level of geopolitical risk, regardless of who wins, could drive gold prices higher. Data shows that gold's performance around elections is slightly below its long-term average, though this difference is not statistically significant. In the six months following the inaugurations of Trump and Biden, gold's returns were -2.6% and -6.4%, respectively.
While historically gold has had limited reaction to election outcomes, this year's U.S. election results could have a more noticeable effect on investor sentiment. Continued election-related uncertainty and increasing geopolitical tensions are likely to heighten market volatility, potentially affecting broader macroeconomic variables. Investors may reevaluate how to mitigate risks in their portfolios and move toward safe-haven assets like gold.
As of 9:50 AM Beijing time on August 29, the spot price of gold was $2,513.28 per ounce.
