Today's focus: GBP to USD


The UK Parliament dissolves: Following the Prime Minister's call for an early July election, the UK Parliament is now dissolved, starting the election process. A possible post-election rate cut is causing a short-term pound sell-off.


Dissolution of the UK Parliament: After the British Prime Minister unexpectedly announced an early general election in July, the UK Parliament declared its dissolution, officially entering the election process. The anticipation of a potential rate cut following the UK general election has led to a short-term selling sentiment for the pound.

Economic Outlook: Despite high interest rates in the UK, the Bank of England's relaxed policy has reinforced the view that the pound will continue to offer attractive carry trade opportunities. With inflation cooling slower than expected, traders have postponed the expected first rate cut to November.

Technical Analysis Highlights:

Stochastic Oscillator: The indicator has once again issued a bearish signal in the overbought region, diverging from the exchange rate trend. This suggests a strong downward inclination for the exchange rate.

Moving Average: According to the 4-hour chart analysis, GBP/USD is currently near the black 65-period moving average, indicating a potential short-term adjustment. If the rebound fails to break the neckline around 1.27621, the exchange rate may continue to trend towards the alternative trend line near 1.26551.

Pivot Indicators:

Central Pivot: 1.2723

Bullish above 1.2723, Target 1: 1.2747, Target 2: 1.2761

Bearish below 1.2723, Target 1: 1.2673, Target 2: 1.2658

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market carries risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account individual users' specific investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investing based on this is at one's own responsibility.

The End


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