On Tuesday, oil prices rebounded after a steep drop in the previous trading session, despite market sentiment being affected by recession trading concerns. The dollar continued to decline significantly, U.S. stocks remained weak, and major commodities like gold, silver, and copper saw significant rebounds, indicating high market instability. In this volatile environment, the crude oil market continued to oscillate sharply as geopolitical factors and sanctions caused market sentiment to fluctuate.
U.S. President Trump stated he saw no signs of a U.S. economic recession, but the U.S. EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook report released early in the morning lowered the 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast to 1.27 million barrels per day, down from the previous 1.30 million barrels per day. Additionally, U.S. API crude oil stocks increased by 4.247 million barrels in the week ending March 7, which slightly pressured oil prices, especially after the EIA report's release, causing oil prices to fall by $0.5. However, oil prices eventually rebounded slightly and closed with a small increase.
Currently, positive factors for oil prices include the potential further tightening of sanctions on Iran, commitments from countries like Kazakhstan to compensate for production cuts (though actual export reductions have yet to be seen), and low inventory levels in the oil market, resulting in low overall supply pressure. Negative factors mainly include the Trump administration's trade war, concerns about a U.S. economic recession, and the weaker performance of refined oil markets in the U.S. and Europe compared to crude oil, negatively impacting demand expectations.
Furthermore, uncertainties such as progress in U.S.-Russia-Ukraine negotiations, tariff policy adjustments, and the potential for substantial slowing of U.S. economic growth continue to pressure oil prices. Despite the complex situation of mixed long and short market pressures on the current crude oil market, oil prices have formed a low-level shock platform, and the demand for rebound recovery still requires further release. It is expected that oil prices will continue to be highly volatile, and investors should remain cautious and adapt flexibly to market rhythms.
