Bitcoin may post its second consecutive annual decline in 2026, a first for the cryptocurrency. It fell nearly 6% in 2025 and is down about 16% so far this year. From the price level cited in the analysis, it would need to climb to roughly $87,500—about 18% higher—to end 2026 in positive territory.
The prospect of back-to-back annual losses contrasts with Bitcoin’s past rebounds after sharp yearly declines. Market analysts say the arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs may have shifted the timing of the asset’s traditional cycles, so two down years would not by themselves establish that the bear market is deepening.
Bitcoin needs an 18% gain to finish the year higher
Bitcoin Magazine’s “Daily Chart” analysis puts Bitcoin’s 2025 loss at nearly 6% and its decline so far in 2026 at about 16%. Based on the price level cited, the cryptocurrency would need to reach around $87,500 to turn this year’s performance positive by year-end.
Market indicators offer a mixed picture. Relatively low implied volatility in options suggests traders are not pricing in unusually sharp moves. Prediction markets put the most likely year-end range at $70,000 to $75,000. Meanwhile, continued outflows from Bitcoin ETFs point to pressure on institutional demand.
Sean Hagan says spot ETFs may have shifted the cycle
Sean Hagan, Bitcoin Magazine’s chief market analyst, argues that the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs may have brought forward the traditional cycle, helping Bitcoin reach a record high before the 2024 halving. That shift in timing could help explain why the market has not necessarily followed past patterns of a quick rebound after an annual decline.
Bitcoin’s year-end price was about 30% below its peak in both 2021 and 2025, but the annual results differed. The cryptocurrency still gained roughly 60% over 2021, partly because it started the year well below its year-end level. By contrast, the rally that came earlier in 2024 left less room to absorb the decline that followed in 2025.
Two consecutive annual losses could therefore reflect a change in cycle timing rather than a deeper bear market. The annual return also needs to be considered alongside Bitcoin’s distance from its previous price high.
Current drawdown remains smaller than past bear markets
The analysis notes that Bitcoin’s latest pullback is shallower than those seen in major previous bear markets, when losses approached 80%. In this cycle, the price touched a low of about $58,500 in June, roughly nine months after the previous high. If that low holds, both the duration and scale of the decline would be smaller than in several earlier major bear markets.
That comparison depends on the June low holding, and the year-end price remains uncertain. Gold and the Nasdaq have each recorded two consecutive down years before recovering, showing that annual losses alone do not determine what comes next. For Bitcoin, ETF flows and its current price level remain key indicators for market participants.