Lowe’s shares edged lower Friday after Stifel analyst Andrew Carter downgraded the home-improvement retailer from Hold to Sell and cut his price target from $195 to $190. The move comes ahead of Lowe’s quarterly results, due Nov. 18, with investors focused on demand, operating margins and intensifying competition.
Carter’s new target is about 16.5% below Lowe’s Thursday closing price of $227.46. The call also puts the outlook for home-improvement spending in focus ahead of earnings: analysts expect revenue to grow, but earnings per share to fall from a year earlier.
Stifel flags weaker demand and margin pressure
Carter sees home-improvement demand potentially weakening in the second half of 2026. Continued softness in do-it-yourself sales, uncertainty around housing-related spending and stronger competition pose challenges for both Lowe’s and Home Depot (NYSE: HD).
He expects operating-margin pressure to emerge in fiscal 2027 and 2028. The two retailers may need to spend more to support long-term growth and compete for customers, potentially weighing on profitability. Carter’s adjusted EPS estimates for fiscal 2028 are 7% below consensus for Home Depot and 8% below consensus for Lowe’s.
Nov. 18 results will test sales and earnings expectations
Analysts expect Lowe’s to report quarterly EPS of $2.88, down from $3.06 a year earlier. Revenue is forecast to rise to $22.42 billion from $20.81 billion. The combination of expected sales growth and lower earnings puts demand, costs and margins at the center of the earnings outlook.
Despite Stifel’s downgrade, the analyst consensus on Lowe’s remains Buy, with an average price target of $253.47. Bernstein recently raised its target to $270, while JPMorgan lifted its target to $275, reflecting differing views on the retailer’s results and valuation.
Lowe’s shares remain above key moving averages
Lowe’s traded above its 20-day simple moving average of $213.40, its 50-day average of $199.85 and its 200-day average of $223.57. Short-term momentum has improved, although the 50-day average remains below the 200-day average. The MACD indicator is above its signal line, also pointing to improving buying momentum.
Traders are watching resistance near $227.50 and support around $199.50. At the time of writing Friday, Lowe’s was down 0.22% at $226.97, slightly different from Thursday’s closing price. The Nov. 18 report will provide fresh figures on sales and earnings against concerns about demand and margin pressure.