Jim Cramer says Anthropic’s progress toward an initial public offering could be a key test for a recovery in AI stocks: investors need to see whether revenue from AI products can support the industry’s heavy infrastructure spending. After Anthropic withdrew a share-price range previously sent to bankers, pre-IPO perpetual contracts tied to the company on decentralized derivatives platform Hyperliquid fell nearly 7% at one point.
Cramer focuses on who ultimately pays for AI
Speaking Monday, Cramer said Anthropic sits at the downstream end of the AI investment chain. Chipmakers and data-center operators benefit from spending on AI infrastructure, but the durability of that investment ultimately depends on whether a small group of AI developers can generate sufficient revenue. He described Anthropic as one of the companies underpinning substantial investment in AI data centers.
That shifts attention from infrastructure spending to the commercial returns behind it. If model developers fail to bring in enough revenue, expectations for data-center and chip demand could be revised, affecting suppliers’ valuations and earnings outlooks.
Anthropic’s SpaceX commitment ties into supplier demand
Anthropic’s monthly computing commitment to SpaceX has risen from $1.25 billion to more than $3 billion, according to figures in its IPO prospectus. The contract supports demand for SpaceX to buy Nvidia chips and links the AI developer’s funding capacity to business for computing suppliers.
Cramer warned that if Anthropic’s IPO or financing plans run into difficulty, the company may lack the funds needed to meet those commitments. Any change in its spending plans or ability to fulfill the contract could lead investors to lower estimates for SpaceX, Nvidia and other computing suppliers. The available information, however, does not indicate that Anthropic has defaulted or canceled the contract.
Anthropic’s valuation matters to Alphabet, Amazon and Nvidia
Alphabet, Amazon and Nvidia all hold stakes in Anthropic. A lower valuation for the company could weigh on the value of those investments and affect the holders’ financial results. Investors are watching not only the IPO price, but also what the eventual valuation may signal about expectations for AI companies and the businesses connected to them.
Anthropic’s withdrawal of the share-price range sent to bankers leaves its IPO pricing picture less clear. The near-7% drop in related Hyperliquid contracts reflected traders’ immediate response, but those contracts do not establish an official IPO price. The company’s listing plans and valuation remain undetermined.