The US is due to release its October 2026 consumer price index (CPI) on November 10 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. Meta AI forecasts monthly gains of 0.2% in both headline and core CPI, a marked slowdown from September. The figures could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s December rate decision and shape near-term trading in risk assets.
Meta AI forecasts 0.2% monthly CPI gains
Market expectations for October headline CPI range from a 0.2% to 0.3% monthly increase, while core CPI is expected to rise about 0.2%. The consensus forecast for headline inflation is close to 3.7% year over year. Meta AI’s baseline forecast puts both headline and core monthly inflation at 0.2%, just below the upper end of the market’s range for headline CPI.
The forecast assumes energy prices have steadied after a sharp rise in gasoline prices in September, with early signs of easing in housing and services inflation. If year-over-year readings remain within expectations, headline inflation could hold around 3.6% to 3.7%, with core inflation near 2.5%. These are estimates; the published data will determine the actual figures.
September headline CPI rose 0.6% from the previous month and 3.7% year over year, both above market expectations. A slower pace in October could ease concerns that inflation is accelerating again, but one month of moderation would not mean price pressures have disappeared.
CPI could shift December rate expectations
A milder CPI reading would not rule out further Fed tightening, but it could reduce the perceived urgency of a sharp rate increase in December and ease upward pressure on Treasury yields and the dollar. Analyst views and prediction-market pricing cited in the forecast put the probability of a December rate hike at about 75% to 80% at the time. If inflation matches Meta AI’s forecast, that estimate could fall.
Markets are also watching Friday’s producer price index (PPI). Beyond inflation data, the US Treasury plans to auction $125 billion in debt, while personal income figures will offer another indication of consumers’ purchasing power. With several data points and bond supply in play, market moves may not be driven by CPI alone.
Bitcoin and ether remain sensitive to rates and flows
Ahead of the CPI release, Bitcoin was hovering near multiweek lows in the mid-$75,000 range. Ether was trading around $2,100 to $2,150 and facing outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs). An inflation reading below more hawkish expectations could offer limited support to assets sensitive to liquidity, though the response would also depend on Treasury yields and equity-market performance.
One scenario outlined in the forecast sees softer inflation prompting a short-term rebound: Bitcoin could rise 3% to 6%, returning to the $78,000 to $80,000 range, while ether could move toward $2,300 to $2,400. These are hypothetical price ranges, not market moves that have already occurred. Any initial reaction could be concentrated in the first 30 to 60 minutes after the release, with prices then responding to the data and moves across other asset markets.
If core CPI rises 0.3% or more month over month, or energy and housing components remain persistent, markets could again price in a tighter monetary-policy path. In that scenario, the forecast suggests Bitcoin could come under pressure and retreat toward the low $70,000s, while ether could remain under pressure. Recent outflows and positioning could amplify volatility. The eventual direction will depend on the actual inflation figures and how markets reassess the Fed’s policy outlook.