After the U.S. midterm elections, prediction-market traders have shifted from congressional races to the future of Trump administration officials. A Polymarket contract on the next Cabinet departure had drawn nearly $190,000 in trading volume. As of Friday morning, Nov. 6, traders put Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s chance of leaving at about 31%, White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles at 24%, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 8%. The market also assigned roughly a 27% chance that no Cabinet member would leave before 2027.
Kalshi and Polymarket had correctly predicted Democratic wins in both chambers of Congress and were relatively accurate on several key Senate races. Their election forecasts brought greater attention to the platforms. Users are now trading on a different political question: whether election results and subsequent congressional scrutiny could prompt officials in President Donald Trump’s administration to leave.
Hegseth leads the Cabinet departure market
Hegseth’s position at the top of the market comes as his role in the Iran war faces scrutiny. The House could vote as soon as next week on articles of impeachment against him. The allegations say he launched the war without congressional approval. Republican Rep. Thomas Massie plans to renew the effort after Republicans’ midterm losses.
The contract reflects traders’ estimates, not a confirmed departure. With nearly $190,000 in volume and Hegseth at about 31%, the market still leaves considerable probability for another official to leave—or for no departure to occur.
Wiles draws criticism after Republican losses
Wiles has a roughly 24% probability of leaving, ranking second on the market. As Republicans look for someone to blame for the midterm losses, she has faced criticism. Former Trump aide Caroline Sunshine called for Wiles to resign in a Wednesday interview with Fox News, saying her campaign skills had not translated into governing ability.
The criticism is not confirmation that Wiles will leave. Polymarket’s contract tracks traders’ estimates of her prospects, while the party’s post-election debate over accountability is still unfolding.
Rubio rejects speculation about leaving
Rubio’s departure probability stands at about 8, amid discussion of a possible 2028 presidential run. He has discussed leaving with White House officials, who asked him to stay. This week, however, he publicly dismissed speculation that he was preparing to exit the administration.
Rubio told The New York Times that serving through the end of Trump’s term “has always been my plan.” His statement is consistent with the market’s low probability, though traders have not ruled out a departure entirely.
The shift from forecasting congressional races to trading on Cabinet turnover shows where prediction-market users see the next post-election political questions. For now, Hegseth leads the departure market, while traders put the chance of no Cabinet exits before 2027 at about 27%.