At the beginning of this week, the international crude oil market once again displayed a volatile trend. After rebounding from last Friday's low point, oil prices exhibited a similar pattern on Monday, fluctuating repeatedly across several trading days, indicating a lack of clear direction in the market. A stronger dollar exerted some pressure on oil prices, while U.S. President-elect Trump’s energy policy promises further attracted market attention.
Oil Prices End With Long Lower Shadow, Volatile Pattern Continues
Recently, the crude oil market has been in a volatile state with mixed signals and lacking a clear short-term direction. On Monday, oil prices experienced significant intraday fluctuations, ultimately closing with a long lower shadow. The stronger dollar has been one of the main factors pressuring oil prices, while uncertainties in the global energy market have exacerbated crude oil price volatility.
Trump's Energy Policy Promises Spark Discussion
Over the weekend, Trump reiterated his energy policy promises, stating that on his first day in office, he would sign an executive order to repeal all energy production and natural gas export restrictions introduced by current President Biden. He also vowed to significantly increase shale production, even as some industry insiders question the feasibility of his policies.
Currently, U.S. crude oil is primarily produced by independent companies rather than national oil companies (NOCs). Some producers have expressed skepticism about Trump's views on a substantial production increase. Data shows U.S. crude production has reached a record high of 13.6 million barrels per day. However, the market still faces complexities like low U.S. crude inventories and floating storage issues caused by Iranian crude sanctions.
Approaching Holiday Season, Quiet Market Trading
With the upcoming Christmas and New Year holidays in the European and American markets, capital activity has noticeably decreased, and trading volumes have significantly shrunk. Traders are refraining from taking decisive actions, and oil prices are expected to maintain a range-bound trend in the short term. Analysts recommend that investors maintain a short-term approach, manage risks carefully, and participate in market operations with caution.
Outlook
In the context of an uncertain global economic recovery, oil prices are expected to continue experiencing volatility influenced by multiple factors in the short term. The path of implementing Trump's energy policies, potential changes in U.S. production, and the evolving global crude oil inventory and supply landscape remain key focal points for the future market.
Overall, the crude oil market has shown frequent fluctuations recently, with both opportunities and risks present for trading. Investors need to closely monitor policy dynamics and the latest changes in market data.
