Bitcoin is approaching key price levels ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on October 28. Analyst Ali Martinez identifies about $81,000 as important support based on on-chain holder cost data. A sustained move above $84,500 could put $92,000 in focus, while a break below support may leave Bitcoin vulnerable to a decline toward $77,000. Selling pressure in the U.S. and a mostly negative Coinbase premium are also weighing on the near-term picture.
On-chain data points to support near $81,000
Martinez said Wednesday that Bitcoin's UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) shows a significant holder-cost cluster around $81,000. The metric groups Bitcoin by the price at which each coin last moved, offering a view of the market's cost basis. About 1 million BTC have traded within this liquidity zone, the data indicates.
That concentration does not guarantee the price will hold. Martinez said a failure to stay above $81,000 could lead to further selling and a move toward $77,000. Continued growth in U.S. market sell orders could prolong bearish sentiment.
$84,500 is the level to reclaim
On the upside, Martinez says Bitcoin would need to close consistently above $84,500 to signal a recovery in momentum. About 620,000 BTC previously traded near that level. If Bitcoin holds above it, the next areas to watch would be $92,000 and $104,000.
These are price areas identified by the analyst from on-chain trading distributions, not confirmed market targets. Bitcoin has already undergone a pronounced pullback lasting about four weeks. Whether it can reclaim $84,500 is likely to shape how traders assess its near-term direction.
Negative Coinbase premium points to softer U.S. demand
CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin's Coinbase premium gap has been negative for most of the time. The measure compares Bitcoin prices on Coinbase and Binance; a negative reading generally means the Coinbase price is lower, suggesting weaker buying demand from U.S. investors. No single indicator determines the broader market trend, but the premium remains a point of focus as Bitcoin trades near support.
Bitcoin was at $80,492.96 at the time of writing, down more than 4% over the past 30 days. Its average 24-hour trading volume fell 7.6% to $20.21 billion, according to CoinMarketCap. With the October 28 FOMC meeting approaching, market attention is on whether Bitcoin can hold around $81,000 and regain $84,500—the levels tied to Martinez's downside risk and recovery conditions.