- In July, the U.S. added only 44,000 ADP jobs, significantly below the market's general expectation of 75,000, indicating a continued cooling of the labor market, which effectively eases the Federal Reserve's pressure to raise interest rates.
- Signs of easing geopolitical tensions, particularly the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, have significantly reduced market concerns about energy inflation, driving international spot gold prices back above $4,200 per ounce and briefly surpassing the $4,300 mark.
- The Hong Kong stock market showed overall weakness, with the three major indices opening lower and declining, but the coal and dividend styles performed well. High temperatures have kept daily consumption at power plants high, and supply-side safety supervision constraints have led to inventory depletion, supporting expectations of stronger coal prices.
Cooling of Macro Employment Reshapes Gold Safe Haven and Rate Cut Expectations
Data shows that the U.S. July ADP figures fell far short of expectations, reflecting a marginal improvement in the tight supply-demand situation in the labor market. As a result, the market's marginally hawkish expectations for central bank tightening policies have moderated, putting short-term pressure on the dollar index and treasury yields, with funds flowing back into safe-haven assets like gold. Products such as Southern Double Long Gold (07299) have risen significantly, indicating that in a macro environment of cooling inflation and weakening rate hike expectations, funds are rapidly repricing the holding costs of non-interest-bearing assets.
Peak Summer Season Supports Coal and Dividend Asset Performance
Spot prices for thermal coal have been adjusted upwards across the board, with high temperatures causing daily consumption at coastal power plants to remain high, while strict safety supervision on the supply side has limited capacity release, leading to rapid inventory depletion at ports and power plants. Against this backdrop, the Coal ETF Guotai (515220) has seen significant gains. Institutional funds are shifting back to defensive assets with high dividends and high cash flow, with the return of the dividend style reflecting a strong preference for assets with stable dividend capabilities and certain cash flows during periods of rising macro uncertainty.
Stabilization and Structural Divergence in the Hong Kong Stock Market
The three major indices of the Hong Kong stock market collectively retreated, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 1.49%, and core heavyweight products like the Tracker Fund (02800) following suit. Although the market is under overall pressure, the slowing pace of earnings downgrades suggests that negative expectations have been largely digested. Low-valuation assets have shown recovery resilience under marginally favorable catalysts, but whether a long-term reversal can be achieved still depends on the substantial recovery of underlying corporate earnings and fundamental improvements in the external liquidity environment.
Dynamic Balance of Technology and Resource Sectors under Barbell Strategy
As the highly crowded growth sectors face position loosening and deleveraging, funds are shifting towards low-valuation value and supply-constrained resource products. The market allocation logic is trending towards a barbell structure that balances defense and resilience, with upstream shipbuilding and non-ferrous sectors supported by supply-demand resonance, while AI hardware and core technology targets, after experiencing valuation adjustments, are awaiting further confirmation of interim performance and order cash flows to seek structural recovery opportunities.
