- The U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency market have significantly diverged, with the S&P 500 index rising by 3.12% this month, increasing its market value by approximately $2.1 trillion, while Bitcoin's gain was only 2%, maintaining a price near $64,600.
- The surge in U.S. stocks is mainly driven by the artificial intelligence and semiconductor sectors, with falling oil prices rapidly reducing corporate costs. In contrast, Bitcoin faces dual pressures from the Federal Reserve's high interest rates and stablecoin capital outflows, with macroeconomic transmission showing a lag.
- The internal crypto market is hit by security vulnerabilities, regulatory compliance concerns, and continuous selling by MicroStrategy, with Bitcoin spot relying on arbitrage funds for support. The market is waiting for risk appetite to recover and volatility to decrease.
Divergence in Asset Trends and Misalignment of Driving Factors
The S&P 500 index broke through the 7,723-point mark, with its market value soaring by about $2.1 trillion within the month, while Bitcoin only slightly increased by 2% and was blocked near $64,600. This rare divergence indicates that funds have not fully released risk appetite but are highly concentrated in AI and semiconductor technology sectors. The traditional stock market shows immediate effects from reduced corporate costs, while crypto assets are constrained by delayed macroeconomic inflation transmission, leading to a clear bias in capital flows, unable to share the benefits of this round of stock market valuation re-evaluation.
Macro High-Interest Rate Squeeze and Stablecoin Capital Outflow
The real yield on U.S. Treasury bonds remains at its highest level since 2008, attracting safe-haven funds to continuously return to traditional fixed-income fields. As a result, the USDT supply shrank from $190 billion to $183 billion, and the USDC scale also fell to $72 billion. Capital is accelerating out of the crypto ecosystem through stablecoin channels, highlighting the absorption effect of risk-free assets on crypto funds in a high-interest-rate environment, greatly suppressing the marginal liquidity elasticity of the digital asset market.
Interwoven Internal Negative Factors and MicroStrategy's Selling Pressure
Multiple negative factors are intertwined within crypto assets, with Coldcard suffering a $120 million vulnerability attack, severely impacting market sentiment, and the advancement of the Clarity Act adding further uncertainty to regulatory compliance. MicroStrategy (MSTR:US) has been selling Bitcoin for three consecutive months, further exerting continuous supply and demand pressure on spot prices. Although it has not evolved into a systemic credit crisis, these micro-level adverse factors significantly squeeze the upward price space, inhibiting the follow-up willingness of retail and institutional investors.
Institutional Arbitrage Behavior and Key Technical Level Contest
The U.S.-listed Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net outflow of $61.53 million this week, ending the previous three weeks of net capital inflow trend. The competition between derivatives and spot has intensified, with market buying mostly reflecting risk-free arbitrage trading rather than directional bullish buying. Currently, Bitcoin prices are seeking technical support in the $63,000 to $63,400 range, while facing heavy selling pressure between $64,500 and $66,000. Overall liquidity recovery still awaits a decline in market volatility and further policy clarity.
