Friday (December 13), CBOT grain futures market trends diverged. The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) export sales data fell below expectations, alongside fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate and global supply and demand dynamics, leading to varied price performances for different commodities.
Wheat: Weak export data pressures prices
The CBOT wheat main contract closed at 558 1/2 cents per bushel, pressured by ample global supply and increased competition. Australia and Argentina are supplying wheat at low prices, making it tough for U.S. wheat to dominate the international market. Uncertainty in Russia's export policy provides some support for wheat prices, but its effect is limited. Recently, Japan purchased 113,000 tons of food-grade wheat, and Saudi Arabia issued an international tender for 595,000 tons, while U.S. wheat export sales were only 290,000 tons, near the lower end of market expectations.
Soybeans: Export demand eases pressure
CBOT soybean prices showed slight firmness, with the January contract closing at 995 3/4 cents per bushel. Even though Brazil's harvest expectations limited price gains, the news of the U.S. exporting 334,000 tons of soybeans to an unknown destination eased market concerns. Meanwhile, commodity funds have recently increased speculative net long positions in soybeans, further boosting market confidence. South Korea's tender for 50,000 tons of non-GMO soybeans also reflects international demand supporting U.S. soybeans.
Soybean oil: Export expectations boost prices
Soybean oil showed strength, driven by USDA's upward revision in export expectations. Commodity funds increased speculative net long positions in soybean oil, indicating a bullish market outlook. The modest price increase suggests demand improvements have positively impacted the market.
Corn: Prices pressured down
CBOT corn prices declined, with the main contract closing at 443 1/2 cents per bushel. USDA data showed corn export sales at only 946,900 tons, below market expectations. A stronger dollar further weakened U.S. corn competitiveness in the global market. On the technical side, the March corn contract fell back after hitting 200-day moving average resistance, limiting its upside potential. Meanwhile, funds increased short positions, further pressuring prices.
Soybean meal: Weak exports suppress prices
CBOT soybean meal prices remained volatile, with the January contract reported in the lower price range. USDA reports showed soybean meal export sales at only 176,300 tons, with weak demand as the main pressure. U.S. domestic supply remains ample, with base export prices stable to declining. Recently, funds significantly increased speculative net short positions in soybean meal, reflecting bearish sentiment in the market.
Summary
The CBOT grain market experienced price divergence due to weak export data and fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate. Wheat and corn faced dual pressures from international supply competition and weak demand, while soybeans and soybean oil showed relative resilience due to demand support. Soybean meal prices continued to linger at low levels, reflecting ongoing weak demand.
