Depreciation of the Won and Rising Inflation: South Korea Faces Multiple Challenges
In December 2024, with a substantial depreciation of the won and extreme political upheaval, inflation in South Korea unexpectedly accelerated, raising concerns about economic stability. Data released by the South Korean statistics department showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December rose 1.9% year-on-year, higher than November's 1.5% and exceeding economists' previous forecast of 1.7%.
Rising Pressure from Imported Inflation
Digging into the details, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices increased by 2.5% year-on-year, and utility prices rose by 1.7%, which were the primary factors driving up inflation. Meanwhile, prices of alcoholic beverages and tobacco fell by 0.4% year-on-year, while entertainment costs increased by 1.2%. Analysts have pointed out that the depreciation of the won is the direct cause of accelerated inflation, closely linked to political unrest triggered by President Yoon Seok-youl's brief imposition of martial law.
Given South Korea's heavy reliance on imported food and energy, the risk of imported inflation due to the won's devaluation has significantly increased. In addition, the martial law affected corporate business confidence, and the ongoing concerns among small to medium-sized enterprises about delayed government subsidy policies have further exacerbated economic pressure.
Consumer Confidence and Shifting Consumption Patterns
Market surveys show that South Korean consumers are becoming increasingly focused on product prices and value for money, with a significant increase in demand for small-packaged products and affordable dining options. In the past six months, social media posts featuring keywords like "small packaging" and "affordable" have risen by over 59%, reflecting consumers' strategies to cope under the pressure of ongoing inflation.
However, the decline in consumer confidence has become a major concern among economists. This trend may further suppress private spending, creating a negative feedback loop for economic growth.
Policy Dilemmas and Central Bank Pressure
The acceleration of inflation has limited the South Korean central bank's room for maneuver in monetary policy. Although the central bank cut rates consecutively in October and November 2024 to stimulate the economy, the latest inflation data may force it to slow down its easing pace in the short term. Economists predict January 2025 may be a critical window for rate cuts, but the ongoing impact of currency depreciation on inflation remains a risk that cannot be overlooked.
Moreover, the won has fallen to its lowest level since 2009, highlighting market concerns about South Korea's economic growth and limiting the central bank's ability to support the economy through rate cuts. The South Korean economy is heavily dependent on exports, with an uncertain outlook for the export market. Although exports in December are expected to grow for the 15th consecutive month, global economic weakness and trade frictions could significantly slow export growth in 2025.
Interplay of Political Turmoil and Economic Uncertainty
The ongoing political turmoil in South Korea has further heightened economic uncertainty. After President Yoon Seok-youl was impeached by the National Assembly, acting President Han Duck-soo was impeached within just two weeks, with Vice Premier and Minister of Economy and Finance Choi Sang-mok assuming the role of acting president. This unprecedented political chaos poses governance challenges for the South Korean government and deepens economic uncertainty.
Meanwhile, the airplane crash incident last week has further complicated the situation facing South Korea. Choi Sang-mok declared a week of national mourning, a move that may further dampen consumer confidence.
Future Outlook: The Path to Economic Recovery amid Multiple Challenges
Economists believe that South Korea needs to stabilize the political situation as quickly as possible to restore market confidence and policy execution effectiveness. Moreover, controlling the won's depreciation and alleviating inflation pressure will be key tasks for the South Korean central bank.
Amid a backdrop of global economic downturn and domestic challenges, the road to economic recovery in South Korea in 2025 will be fraught with uncertainty. Rebuilding consumer confidence and balancing monetary policy with economic growth have become urgent core issues that South Korean policymakers need to address.
