Recently, the international crude oil market has been under continuous pressure, with oil prices falling for the third consecutive week. This is mainly due to concerns that the Trump administration's tariffs on Chinese goods might affect global demand. Worries about sanctions on Iranian oil have not provided significant support. Although oil prices rose slightly on Friday, the overall trend remains weak, with investors focusing on the impact of trade policy on economic growth.
Trump's Tariff Policy Puts Pressure on Oil Prices
Last Friday (February 9), WTI crude oil futures prices rose slightly by 0.6% to settle at $71 per barrel, while Brent crude oil April futures also rose by 0.5%, closing at $74.66 per barrel. However, WTI crude prices still fell by a total of 2.1% this week, continuing the decline from the previous two weeks. The market generally believes that the Trump administration's tariff policy on China could curb economic growth, thereby dragging down oil demand.
In recent years, the global crude oil market has been influenced by a multitude of factors, including supply and demand balance, geopolitical risks, and economic policies. The policy announced by the Trump administration in early February to impose a 10% tariff on Chinese imports has raised concerns about economic growth slowing down. The risk of an escalating trade war could reduce global oil demand, and some analysts predict that if the global economy is hit by tariff policies, the oil market may face an oversupply issue later this year.
A/S Global Risk Management Chief Analyst Arne Lohmann Rasmussen stated, "Oil prices are still under pressure, but there are signs of support around the current levels. The market is worried that US tariff policies may further slow down the American economy."
Iran Sanctions Fail to Support Oil Prices, Market Reacts Coldly to Supply Restrictions
Meanwhile, the first round of US sanctions on Iranian oil transportation has not delivered the expected price support. Shipping companies and market analysts note that the severity of Trump's sanctions is far less than the previous threats of "maximum pressure," and has not significantly heightened supply shortages. In contrast, the market is more concerned about the long-term effects of the trade war, believing that a global economic slowdown may be more damaging than supply risks.
"So far, the supply tightening effect of the Iran sanctions is far less than expected," a market analyst pointed out. "Instead, the worries about an economic slowdown triggered by Trump's tariff policies have a more noticeable impact on oil prices."
Market Outlook: Demand Risks Continue to Dominate Oil Price Trends
Although there has been a slight rebound in oil prices recently, the overall market sentiment remains cautious. Investors are evaluating whether US tariff policies will further impact global economic growth and weaken oil demand. Additionally, the market is watching for the subsequent policies of major oil-producing countries and whether OPEC+ will adjust production to cope with potential demand weakness.
In the future, oil price trends will continue to be influenced by various factors, including U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy, geopolitical risks, and whether the Trump administration will impose more tariffs on China. In the short term, if concerns about slowing demand continue to intensify, oil prices may come under further pressure, and investors need to closely monitor global economic data and the next steps of the US government.
