JPMorgan Asset Management has included Bitcoin in its long-term scenario analysis for the first time in the 31-year history of its annual outlook. In its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, published on October 19, the firm puts Bitcoin at about $215,300 in its base case, $385,500 in its optimistic case and $25,300 in its pessimistic case, using a reference price of $83,000. These are model outcomes under different assumptions, not firm price forecasts. The report cautions that Bitcoin is not yet a clear candidate for a strategic portfolio allocation.
Three scenarios, three return assumptions
JPMorgan Asset Management’s base case assumes a 10% annualized return over the next decade, implying a Bitcoin price of about $215,300. Its optimistic scenario assumes 16.6% annualized returns and points to about $385,500. In the downside case, an assumed annual decline of 11.2% would leave Bitcoin at roughly $25,300 after 10 years.
The wide range underscores how sensitive the long-term outcomes are to the return assumptions. JPMorgan’s base-case return assumption is above its figures for U.S. large-cap stocks, at 7.5%, and gold, at 5.5%. But the firm also estimates Bitcoin’s annualized volatility at 55%—more than three times the 18% expected for U.S. equities. The return potential therefore comes with substantially greater price swings, a factor that cannot be assessed from projected returns alone.
Money supply and competition with gold drive the model
The model assigns 65% of its weight to Bitcoin’s relative supply growth compared with expansion in the U.S. dollar and global money supply. The potential to attract capital that would otherwise go to gold accounts for 30%, while network adoption makes up just 5%. In the base case, the network-adoption component contributes a negative 3.2% to annualized returns.
JPMorgan’s breakdown assigns an annualized return contribution of 10.7% each to the money-supply and gold-substitution factors. That puts monetary conditions and Bitcoin’s ability to draw funds from traditional stores of value at the center of the valuation case, rather than broader growth in crypto infrastructure. The firm also assumes that the expansion of tokenized assets on other blockchains will not directly deliver significant gains to Bitcoin.
The report characterizes Bitcoin as a speculative asset and a possible hedge against monetary easing. It notes that Bitcoin prices tend to respond to global liquidity, as other high-risk assets do. But JPMorgan does not assume that concerns about currency debasement will necessarily drive capital into crypto. Bitcoin’s high volatility and unstable correlations with other assets make that investment rationale less dependable.
Correlation and volatility constrain portfolio use
In a separate portfolio analysis, JPMorgan Asset Management found that Bitcoin’s historical correlation coefficient was 0.33 with U.S. large-cap stocks and 0.10 with gold. The firm says those relationships are not stable enough to support a reliable diversification role in a multi-asset portfolio.
Portfolio manager Sheena Shah, who leads the Bitcoin analysis, and digital-asset strategist Dennis Cristallo also point to extreme volatility and inconsistent correlations as constraints on Bitcoin’s use as a long-term portfolio asset. In the report’s view, a stronger case for strategic investment would require lower volatility, more stable correlations, deeper liquidity and better price discovery.
Scenario analysis contrasts with Jamie Dimon’s criticism
The analysis reflects JPMorgan’s institutional engagement with crypto assets, despite CEO Jamie Dimon’s long-standing public criticism of Bitcoin. Dimon has called it a “fraud” and questioned its economic value, citing speculative trading, criminal activity and regulatory risks.
At JPMorgan’s investor day in May 2025, however, Dimon confirmed the bank would allow clients to buy Bitcoin and show their holdings on account statements. The bank was not offering custody services at the time. Dimon said he did not like Bitcoin but supported clients’ freedom to decide whether to invest. His personal views can coexist with the firm’s long-term scenario analysis; the projections are not an investment commitment by JPMorgan.
After the forecast was published, Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan wrote on X that institutions had moved from ignoring, mocking and opposing Bitcoin to including it in long-term capital-market assumptions and projecting it could be the best-performing asset of the next decade. His comment points to a shift in traditional finance’s engagement with crypto. JPMorgan’s report, however, continues to emphasize Bitcoin’s high volatility and uncertain correlations as key limits when assessing its investment role.