U.S. durable goods orders fell by 0.3% followed by a decline of 6.1%. The total order cost in January was the lowest since September 2022, despite significant fluctuations in recent months due to transportation orders. This was worse than the average forecast of a 4.9% decrease.
FxPro Senior Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich noted: Excluding transportation, new orders slightly decreased by 0.3%, marking the smallest decrease since July 2023. The average forecast was a 0.2% increase, but the figure remained flat, with only a 2.2% increase over two years.
This stagnation stands in stark contrast to the tight labor market and the stock market reaching all-time highs. However, considering these as early signs of a recession is too hasty. For example, overall and core indexes have been contracting since the last quarter of 2018, but only the sharp decline following the first pandemic lockdown triggered a recession.
The report tempered the weakening of the U.S. dollar, with the dollar rising by 0.1%, and the Nasdaq 100 index briefly fell by 0.2%, as the new report did not raise expectations for U.S. economic expansion.
