Disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has added €127 billion to Europe’s fossil-fuel import bill without bringing in any extra energy, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on November 3. The higher costs, combined with low gas inventories, are adding to supply and price pressures as the continent enters the heating season.
Import costs climb from €24bn to €127bn
Speaking at the WinWin Summit in Brussels, von der Leyen said Europe had paid more for imported oil and gas but received “not a molecule” of additional energy. The European Commission estimated in April that the extra cost was about €24 billion, roughly seven weeks after the war began. By the end of September, EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen said the figure had exceeded €100 billion.
Europe’s reliance on imported oil and gas leaves it exposed to the shocks and crises that can follow disruptions to supply, von der Leyen said. Higher import costs can affect not only fuel prices but also transport, production and heating expenses for businesses and households.
New suppliers have not ended import dependence
After Russia sharply cut gas deliveries to the EU following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, European countries competed to refill storage at high prices and began reducing their reliance on Russian energy. Russia’s share of EU gas imports fell from about 45% before the conflict to around 13% in 2025. In January, EU member states approved a plan to end Russian LNG imports by the end of this year and phase out pipeline gas imports by autumn 2027.
Europe has since turned to other suppliers, with a substantial share of its imported gas coming from the United States and the Middle East. When the Iran war began, imported fossil fuels still accounted for 57% of the EU’s energy consumption. The Strait of Hormuz carries about one-fifth of the world’s traded oil, and the conflict brought tanker traffic close to a halt. Fuel from the Persian Gulf also accounts for more than 40% of Europe’s jet fuel and diesel imports.
Low inventories put winter supply under pressure
After a cold winter, EU gas storage fell to 28.4% of capacity by late March, below the five-year average. On Tuesday, the International Energy Agency said the bloc was entering the heating season with its lowest gas inventories since 2013. If the winter is cold and disruption to the strait continues, storage could fall below 10% by the end of March next year. European gas network operators have warned that in a severe cold snap, supply could fall 12% to 15% short of demand. EU energy ministers discussed bloc-wide consumption limits in late October.
In the spring, Jørgensen urged member states to consider voluntary energy-saving measures, particularly in transport. The IEA’s proposed fuel-saving steps include car-free Sundays, a measure used during the oil crises of the 1970s. By September, retail petrol prices in some EU countries were nearly 50% higher than before the crisis, exceeding $11 a gallon. Rising diesel prices in Italy also prompted a week-long truckers’ strike, disrupting milk deliveries and affecting cheese producers. Italian inflation reached 5.4% during the same period. EU officials expect oil and gas prices to remain above pre-war levels at least through the end of 2027.
Von der Leyen rejects a return to Russian energy
Russian President Vladimir Putin said in March that he was willing to resume energy supplies to Europe. Von der Leyen said returning to Russian energy would be a “strategic mistake.” Europe’s response, she said, should be to reduce imports. She also pointed to the cost pressures of fossil-fuel dependence, alongside the effects of climate change, including droughts, wildfires and floods.
The EU aims to reach climate neutrality by 2050 and cut emissions by 90% by 2040. Von der Leyen said the bloc has invested more than €1.2 trillion in sustainable activities since 2021 and would continue to pursue its targets and support clean industries. For the coming winter, gas storage levels, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and temperatures will all shape Europe’s energy supply and import costs.