During Tuesday's (18th) trading, the three major indexes of Hong Kong stocks rose widely, with the Hang Seng Index breaking through the key level of 23,000 points, reaching a new high this stage, and increasing nearly 15% this year. The Hang Seng Tech Index performed particularly well, with a rise of nearly 3%, exceeding a 26% increase for the year. Market sentiment is optimistic, and a report by Deutsche Bank indicates that Chinese assets are expected to outperform other regions in 2024. The bull market trend for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks began at the start of the year and is expected to surpass previous highs in the mid-term.
Analysts at China International Capital Corporation believe that, based on static calculations, a reasonable level for the Hang Seng Index is around 23,000 points. If sentiment for tech stocks returns to the peak of 2021, the Hang Seng could further rise to 25,000 points.
CITIC Securities also released related forecasts, stating that under a base case scenario, the Hang Seng Index is expected to see a 5% profit growth in 2025, with a risk premium of 7.5%. Therefore, their target price is 20,300 points, with a yearly fluctuation range between 16,700 points and 23,500 points. In the most optimistic scenario, if central financial support increases subsidies for local governments and resident incomes, stimulating inflation recovery and stabilizing the real estate market, the Hang Seng could reach 23,500 points.
Overall, the current performance of the Hang Seng Index is strong, and there is a high level of confidence in the future growth prospects of the market, especially driven by the dual forces of technology stocks and policy support. The future market trend remains full of potential.
