U.S. President Donald Trump is considering restrictions on diesel exports as his administration faces political pressure over rising fuel costs. The U.S. oil industry warns that an export ban could disrupt refining operations and refined-product supply. While some regions might see short-term price relief, consumers could ultimately face higher gasoline and diesel costs, while global fuel markets come under additional supply pressure.
Speaking in New York during the United Nations General Assembly this week, Trump said the United States produces large volumes of diesel and that he had asked his administration to examine halting exports. Mike Sommers, chief executive of the American Petroleum Institute, said restricting U.S. energy exports could worsen pressure on refiners and leave consumers paying more. He argued that increasing supply and improving market flexibility would be more effective than imposing new export controls.
Refiners fall as the scope of any ban remains unclear
Shares of Valero Energy, Marathon Petroleum and Phillips 66 fell on Wednesday after markets absorbed the possibility of a 90-day U.S. ban on diesel exports.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright later said the administration was studying export restrictions rather than moving directly to a blanket ban. Wright, who previously served as chief executive of oilfield-services company Liberty Energy, said the government wanted to avoid a one-size-fits-all policy because the refining system depends on complex product mixes, regional supply and demand, and logistics networks.
Wright has previously warned that limiting refined-product flows could prompt U.S. refineries to reduce total output. As storage tanks fill, refiners could cut production of gasoline and other products as well, reducing overall market supply.
Some regions could benefit briefly, while wider price pressure builds
An oil-industry executive estimated that a diesel export ban could raise fuel prices by about 30 cents a gallon. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said U.S. gasoline prices could approach historical highs if restrictions were introduced.
Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy and a former energy adviser to President George W. Bush, said the Gulf Coast and downstream areas of the U.S. Midwest could see prices fall initially. Those regions have significant refining capacity, and some products currently sent overseas would remain in the domestic market if exports were reduced.
The U.S. Northeast, which relies more heavily on imports, is unlikely to receive the same relief. McNally said any initial price decline could disappear quickly as refiners reduce output. Domestic prices could then rise above where they would have been without a ban, while global fuel prices could also come under upward pressure.
The United States and Europe also rely on refined-product exchanges: the U.S. sends diesel to Europe, while Europe supplies gasoline to the United States. If Washington restricts diesel exports, trading partners could respond with countermeasures, including limits on gasoline shipments to the U.S. Such a shift could tighten supply further in the import-dependent Northeast.
Average diesel price up nearly $3 in a year
Diesel prices have become a central political pressure point for the administration. Data from the American Automobile Association showed that the national average diesel price was $6.52 a gallon on September 23, nearly $3 higher than the same period in 2025. The average gasoline price was $4.47 a gallon, up $1.30 from a year earlier.
Republican Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa called on the White House over the weekend to impose a diesel embargo. Iowa is a major agricultural state, and farming relies heavily on diesel. The state also faces a competitive Senate election, linking higher diesel costs to both farm expenses and local political pressure.
McNally described the pressure behind the proposal as a pre-election response. With the U.S. midterm elections scheduled for November, Republican lawmakers have increasingly urged the administration to act if fuel prices do not fall.
Russian restrictions add to global supply concerns
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the White House was assessing whether a full or partial export ban would be compatible with the United States' overall refining capacity. The administration is also examining whether the measures would work in practice. A White House official said Trump wanted to reduce prices at the pump and was considering all options.
A key factor behind the global diesel shortage is Russia's suspension of diesel exports after attacks on its refining facilities linked to the war in Ukraine. Russia had previously been the world's second-largest source of diesel, and the reduction in its exports has removed substantial supply from international markets. Further U.S. restrictions would leave traders facing the loss of two major sources at the same time.
The Trump administration has not yet decided on a final policy. The debate is focused on whether to impose a blanket ban, apply targeted restrictions or seek to adjust supply through voluntary export reductions. For markets, the main variables are the scope and duration of any White House action, as well as the response from U.S. refiners and trading partners.