In the third quarter of 2024, global demand for gold ETFs rebounded significantly, partially offsetting the decline in central bank gold purchases and jewelry demand, becoming a key factor supporting the precious metals market. The latest data shows that global gold demand reached 1,176 tons in the third quarter, a significant increase compared to the second quarter, slightly lower than the same period last year. Investment demand was strong, especially gold ETFs, which achieved positive growth for the first time since the first quarter of 2022, increasing by 95 tons, with overall investment demand reaching 364 tons, surpassing the same period last year.
By October, gold ETF holdings increased by another 900,000 ounces, totaling 84.1 million ounces, indicating continued market interest in gold investments. However, central bank gold purchases slowed to 186 tons in the third quarter, significantly lower than the same period last year. It is expected that the total annual gold purchases by central banks will be lower than last year but still close to the third-highest level in history. In terms of jewelry, global demand decreased by 12% year-on-year due to high gold prices, with only India showing growth during the festive season, demonstrating a special consumption demand for gold.
The futures market also showed positive trends, with speculative futures net long positions reaching 29.6 million ounces, although not reaching the high levels of September, they remain in the historically high range. Analysts have pointed out that the overbought status of gold prices and the divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may lead to a short-term correction and consolidation in gold prices.
Meanwhile, the global silver market has been supported by a surge in production from Peru. Buenaventura Mining Company in Peru significantly increased its silver production, producing 11.5 million ounces in the first three quarters, with an annual forecast of 14.5-16 million ounces. The company has reopened two mines and accelerated production at the new Yumpag mine, which is expected to contribute 7.5-8 million ounces to the annual silver output. The Yumpag mine has already produced 6 million ounces in the first three quarters, expected to exceed forecasts, with an annual target of 8.5 million ounces.
Changes in the supply and demand of the global precious metals market present new opportunities and challenges for investors. As demand for gold and silver rises, the future price trends of precious metals attract significant market attention.
