SK Hynix expects memory demand to outstrip supply through 2030, citing the growing difficulty of advanced manufacturing and the long lead times required to build new factories. The company gave its outlook after reporting record third-quarter results in late October. Micron has not forecast the market balance through 2030, but its multi-year customer agreements extend as far as 2031. Strong orders and profits point to robust demand, though the memory industry's history of sharp cycles and signs of slowing profit growth leave the longer-term outlook uncertain.
SK Hynix has orders covering more than half of future capacity
SK Hynix's third-quarter revenue topped 100 trillion won for the first time, reaching about 104.6 trillion won, up 328% year over year. Operating profit rose 632% to about 83.3 trillion won, for an operating margin of 80%. The company said it had signed long-term agreements with 14 major customers, including leading cloud service providers. Those orders cover more than half of its total production capacity for 2027 and 2028. At the end of July, about 10 customers had signed agreements.
Revenue climbed from about 52.6 trillion won in the first quarter to 79.3 trillion won in the second and 104.6 trillion won in the third. But sequential growth eased: revenue growth slowed from 51% to 32%, while operating profit growth fell from 61% to 38%. SK Hynix also plans to return about 100 trillion won to shareholders in 2026 through dividends and share buybacks. Net cash stood at 98.7 trillion won at the end of the third quarter.
The article cites two different share-price snapshots. SK Hynix's Nasdaq-listed shares were quoted at $149.21 on October 30; a separate estimate at the time of writing put them at about $162. The latter equates to roughly four to five times analysts' forecast earnings for fiscal 2027. That low multiple may reflect expectations that current profits will not last, but it does not establish how long tight supply will persist.
Micron agreements cover more than 35% of revenue
Micron's management expects memory supply to remain below demand in calendar years 2027 and 2028, with tighter conditions than in 2026. The company said it cannot yet determine when supply and demand will return to balance after that. Micron has signed 26 strategic customer agreements, including multi-year take-or-pay contracts that require customers to pay for committed volumes whether or not they take delivery.
Micron estimates the agreements cover more than 35% of revenue through 2030, with some contracts running into 2031. Customers have provided about $32 billion in financial assurances for the commitments, mainly in the form of cash deposits. For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, which ended September 3, revenue increased to $54.2 billion from $11.3 billion a year earlier. The operating margin rose to about 81% from 32%. Micron forecast first-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue of about $61.5 billion, a record level. That guidance implies sequential growth of about 13%, below the fourth quarter's 31% increase.
The article also gives two price references for Micron shares: $884.74 on October 30 and an estimate of about $972 at the time of writing. The latter represents roughly 5.5 times analysts' projected fiscal 2027 earnings. Micron's 2027 fiscal year began in September.
Memory's past cycles leave room for a reversal
Long-term customer commitments do not remove the risk of swings in memory prices and profits. Looking back at 2018, SK Hynix said demand slowed in the second half of that year and the market shifted quickly, bringing the supply shortage to an end. Operating profit fell about 87%, from 20.8 trillion won in 2018 to 2.7 trillion won the following year. The 2018 operating margin was 52%, below the 80% reported in the latest quarter, underscoring how much earnings could change if margins retreat from current levels.
Micron's net income reached a record $14.1 billion in fiscal 2018, yet its shares fell about 54% from their closing high in late May to a December low. New capacity is also due to come online over the next several years. Micron expects wafer production to begin at its second Idaho factory in late 2028, while its first New York factory is expected to start production in 2030—both within the latter part of SK Hynix's projected shortage period. Customer agreements provide visibility into demand, while slower profit growth, past industry cycles and incoming capacity remain key variables.