Oil prices on Monday experienced a peak followed by a slight rise, continuing to fluctuate, as the market's attention is focused on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting scheduled for this Thursday. According to sources, OPEC+ might decide to extend the current oil production cuts until the end of the first quarter of 2025, a decision crucial for oil prices.
Currently, the market is split into two distinct perspectives regarding the expectation of OPEC+ extending the cuts. One side believes the market underestimates OPEC+'s determination to maintain stability in the oil market, and given the low inventory, a significant drop in oil prices is unlikely. If supply unexpectedly decreases, prices could rebound swiftly. However, the other side argues that under the pressure of weak demand, geopolitical factors alone cannot support a strong rise in oil prices, especially since OPEC+'s spare capacity remains high, leading to a potential surplus that could cause prices to remain weak and eventually break downward.
Over the past two months, oil prices have been in a tug-of-war between bears and bulls. Although the peaks have gradually lowered, the bulls have firmly held the line on OPEC+ cuts. This OPEC+ meeting is key to breaking the current oscillating trend. Market expectations are increasingly focusing on the option of extending the cuts, which implies that oil prices may continue to consolidate in the short term.
However, if the expectations of OPEC+ extending the cuts are not met, oil prices could face a risk of breaking downward, prompting investors to exercise caution. Overall, the market remains sluggish, and short-term price volatility is likely to continue. Traders need to pay attention to the results of the forthcoming meeting and adjust strategies accordingly based on market reactions.
