On Monday, April 14, oil prices edged slightly higher due to some electronic products receiving U.S. tariff exemptions and a significant rebound in China's crude oil imports in March. However, market gains were limited as investors remained concerned about the potential economic downturn risks from the global trade war and the impact on fuel demand, influencing oil price movements.
Brent crude futures rose 0.2%, settling at $64.88 per barrel, while U.S. crude futures gained 3 cents, closing at $61.53. U.S. President Trump stated on Sunday that he would announce the tariff rates on semiconductor imports within the next week and that flexibility would be maintained for some companies in the sector. Meanwhile, the latest data shows that China's crude oil imports in March increased by nearly 5% year-on-year, rebounding significantly, partly due to a recovery in oil supplies from Iran and Russia.
Nonetheless, since the beginning of this month, Brent and U.S. crude prices have fallen by about $10, as global trade tensions have escalated, intensifying market concerns about economic slowdown and weakened demand. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its monthly report also downgraded the 2025 global oil demand growth forecast, mainly due to data from the first quarter and the impact of U.S. tariff policies. OPEC predicts that global oil demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and by 1.28 million barrels per day in 2026, with both forecasts reduced by 150,000 barrels per day compared to last month.
Although there has been a short-term rebound in oil prices, market sentiment remains pessimistic. Reports from OPEC and other institutions indicate that due to rising recession risks and increased output from OPEC+, oil prices are expected to decline further in the coming months.
According to the latest oil price forecasts, Brent and U.S. crude prices are expected to remain at $63 and $59 per barrel, respectively, for the remainder of 2025, and are projected to fall further to $58 and $55 per barrel in 2026.
Additionally, institutions like UBS and JPMorgan have also lowered their oil price forecasts, primarily due to the increased OPEC+ supply and weak global demand. Nonetheless, recent market reactions indicate that the ongoing uncertainty of the trade war remains a key risk factor for future oil price trends.
